Hello & welcome along to my continuing blog of the Dubai International Racing Carnival, there have been no reviews from me for the last 2 weeks due to technical errors at my end but all should be back to normal this week. There will be 2 blogs this week as it is a Double Carnival meeting Thursday & Saturday. Saturday's feature is the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy.
Also hope you were on last week as this horse
strolled to victory at a generous 20/1 with William Hill
All hail Avon Pearl!!
Thursday opens with one of the weakest Carnival handicap's so far with just 8 runners all of whom are old Carnival regulars. I honestly couldn't envisage really being interested in having a bet in this race or even debating who would win as anyone of them could on a going day so its a race I will leave alone.
Up next is a 6f Tapeta handicap which sees last week's winner Medicean Man (see below) step back out quickly,
he has won on a synthetic surface at Wolverhampton back in 2010 where he beat Gilt Edge Girl (who went onto win that year's Prix De L'Abbaye) whether he will really get a strong pace to fire at though is debatable as is how he will handle going round a bend. Merhee steps back into the fray after a disappointing run a few weeks back, this trip & tapeta look more suitable so you would be hopeful he could take a hand in the finish, his stablemate Lehaaf has been awfully disappointing the last twice (Jebel Ali: hated the dirt & a Local event at Meydan: he didn't really fire) I can't see the step down in trip really being to his advantage now. Old Masamah can't win as its further than 5 furlongs, Roi Du Vitesse is not up to this, Conveyance has not been seen for almost 3 years so it would be some training performance, Racy is out of his depth, Mujaazef is a Jebel Ali horse not a Carnival one & Murbeh is not good enough. Abu Sidra is a reasonable French sprinter who made the breakthrough at Group 3 level last June, Tapeta is a worry & I would imagine this is a prep for bigger aspirations down the line.
The US raider is Zee Bros (see below) owned by Zayat Stables & he was trained by Bob Baffert last season when he won 2 races from 6 starts including 1 stakes race,
he is now with a young trainer on the up Seth Benzel who has had experience of Dubai after having a year as a private trainer out there. Zee Bros has been reportedly doing well in Dubai & you would be hopeful of a good run if he is to go on to World Cup Night, he also represents a feather in the cap for young Irishman Shane Foley who has picked up the ride on the American speed horse
Another race to watch rather than bet for me.
The Meydan Classic for Turf animals is up next & its a shocking race, all the also rans from earlier Guineas trials are out again & with no representative from Godolphin this should be a cakewalk for Mike De Kock's Wednaan who ran a excellent first race in the UAE on Tapeta behind the impressive Long John (see race below),
he looked a horse to follow when he won on his debut at Yarmouth at the end of last season.
Najm Suhail has been running consistently but always seems to find at least 3 or 4 too good, I have a feeling this horse could win a race but I would like to see him held up till the last possible minute as he only has one run. Of the others Dolce N'Karama is still overrated due to his 4th in a soft ground Racing Post Trophy last season, he was well beaten first time up in Dubai & I can't see him being good enough to beat Wednaan but he may sneak a place. None of the others appeal as being anywhere near good enough.
Once again a non betting event for me.
The big race of the night is the UAE Oaks over 9.5f on Tapeta, impressive Guineas winner Ihtimal (see photo) steps up in trip which on breeding should be ok & on her racing style you would be hopeful as well, she is miles clear on ratings so that is another positive.
Mike De Kock saddles the usual 3 Mensoora, Magrooma & Magroora. The step up in trip will suit both Mensoora & Magrooma so I could see both getting closer, I do still prefer Magrooma of the two although the booking of Richard Hughes is not a positive for me after his ridiculous delayed waiting tactics on her last time.
Mensoora is once again the choice of Soumillion but I just have not warmed to this filly as much as her stablemate. Godolphin's other runner is the Sheikh Ahmed owned Feedyah who is another who will be helped the step up in trip, she hasn't shown she has the class to handle Ihtimal but she is still entitled to be improving.
Illuminating Dream, More Aspen, Letterfromamerica & the ex Russian filly Sign Of Lucky make up the field, all 4 were well well beaten behind Ihtimal last time so have no hope on Thursday.
Depending on the prices I may be tempted on Magrooma.
The Group 2 Zabeel Mile looks a compact & classy race;
Mushreq has the assistance of what I assume is a pacemaker in the shape of Mushtaheel (I can't see why else he would be in the race), which will be a huge help in a small field event such as this. Mushreq is a classy consistent animal who is honest & always runs a good race, whoever finishes in front of him will win.
Edu Querido the ex brazilian made a satisfactory Dubai debut but will need to step up markedly on that run to be in contention on Thursday.
Trade Storm won this race last year but was most disappointing on his first start this year finishing well down the field behind Mujarrib last time, clearly he will come on for that but this is a very good race & I don't genuinely believe he is as good enough against proper top animals.
Gabrial steps up into Group company after 2 solid runs in handicap company, given a strong pace he could be a force to be reckoned with in this race.
Mshawish (see photo) returns to the track after his unlucky 2nd in the Al Fahidi Fort a few weeks ago, another who will need a decent pace, I have him down as a massive contender on the big night so I expect him to win on Thursday.
Gale Force Ten does not stay & is not good enough while stablemate Anaerobio was well beaten in a handicap last week after 2 good early Carnival wins (including a defeat of Mshawish), this trip is not his best & others will improve past him.
Mshawish a confident selection for me from Mushreq & Gabrial.
The final race of the night is an 11f Tapeta handicap, Alexandra Palace steps out again after a disappointing display last week in a similar event, he never travelled that day & after winning well on debut I would be wary of him now.
Irish raider Manalapan ran just ok last time over a trip that should have suited after an encouraging first run in the UAE, he has placed form on synthetics so that may help although he is high enough in the weights. Energia Davos has been very consistent so far & is paying for it rising in the weights, I can again see him being there abouts but a win may be too much. Adroitly, Vasily & Farrier are outclassed while Manchester was disappointing on his first start & must improve dramatically to take a hand. Starboard has looked hard work the last twice & is a shadow of his former self.
I think this race is best left to the Godolphin duo of the game a as pebble little Tha'ir who never knows how to run a bad race & Winterlude who was badly in need of the run 2 weeks ago & I thought stayed on well after being given a typically bad ride from young Barzalona. Of the 2 the trip favours Tha'ir more but I would on what is an average Carnival night back them both.
Tha'ir & Winterlude the two for me against the field in this final event.
@fttfracing
No comments:
Post a Comment