Hello & welcome along to my first blog since the Cheltenham Festival & my last for this year's #DWCC2014, this year's Carnival has been the best since its inception, the big night is now only days away & the final fields are stacked full of world wide talent.
The last month has seen much upheaval in my personal life with arrival of my baby son Dylan Arthur Woods who arrived last Friday, life has changed of course with a couple of sleepless nights already & leaving the house is now a military operation but its all a rewarding incredible experience which will only get better.
The opening thoroughbred race on World Cup Night is The Godolphin Mile & last year's winner Soft Falling Rain returns to defend his title after a lackluster run over 6f in the Mahab Al Shimal a few weeks back, hopefully that was a rare off day for this Top Class miler who should be right in the mix if anywhere near his best.
Fellow South African Variety Club came to Dubai with a huge reputation & duly obliged at the first time of asking in a below par edition of The Firebreak however on his most recent start on Super Saturday when he was harried for the lead he was readily outpointed & personally I can't see how he can turn the form around with the Godolphin filly Shuruq, the draw has also not been kind especially for a horse who shows so much speed. Shuruq won the trial for this on Super Saturday defeating Variety Club, she is a 10lb better filly on Tapeta & has an outstanding chance.
Brightline represents Japan is just a useful sort in his native country, his form ties in with two of Japan's hopes for the World Cup & he is another to have be done few favours by the draw. Limario showed up well on his Dubai debut before dropping away he will improve but will need to as will old boys Haatheq (2nd last year), Mull Of Killough (not up to this) & Penitent (only 8th last year & another year older).
Gabrial has had a decent trip to the Emirates wining once & running well twice however he doesn't act on Tapeta. Glory Awaits has been over faced ever since he ran out of his skin in last year's 2000 Guineas he just is not up to this & neither is Eastern Rules who whatever happens on Saturday has had a brilliant Carnival.
Old Capital Attraction ran an excellent 3rd in The Burj Nahaar last time, its a shame he has an average draw but he could still make the frame. Elleval will find this company & distance much more to his liking after being outclassed in the final round of The Al Maktoum Challenge, he rates a very decent each way chance of hitting the frame or better on Saturday. I can't have Flotilla on the surface or on form as I don't think she's trained on. Local horses Forjatt & Gold City complete the lineup both have a lot to do although Gold City did win well in a much lesser contest last time, he could well be a big priced local runner to make the frame.
A race lacking depth despite the maximum field which should involve Shuruq, Soft Falling Rain & Elleval. I am a fan of Soft Falling Rain but would have preferred to see him in better form so the verdict goes to Shuruq with Elleval hitting the frame.
The Dubai Gold Cup looks at the mercy of last year's winner Cavalryman who returned a few weeks back with a merciless victory over the majority of his opponents on Saturday.
The ones that did not run that night are Joshua Tree who is not good enough & unlikely to stay, Seismos who will stay but is not good enough, Now We Can who has been running above his grade recently so he should find this easier but I can't truly see him being involved, Ernest Hemingway represents Aidan O'Brien, he is a useful animal but has yet to prove himself for me so I could not consider him.
There are some Carnival horses stepping up for a run on the big night they include Sheikhzayadroad who has a mind of his own & a step up in trip for me is not what he needs, Jamr is not good enough, Songcraft will appreciate the trip & is fancied to be involved while Ralston Road is nowhere near good enough,
Dabadiyan could well run above himself with the step up looking likely to suit he is an each way horse for the frame. Simenon will improve for going back up in trip but showed little on his first start, Star Empire will find this a little too hot despite having run with supreme credit throughout the Carnival, Moment In Time is outclassed as is Saddler's Rock & Certerach who is another to have had a decent time over the winter in Dubai.
Cavalryman is a confident selection 3/1 Generally available followed by stablemate Songcraft & Dabadiyan 14/1 E/W BETVICTOR to run big.
The UAE Derby looks a to between 3 horses Long John, Asmar & Giovanni Boldini with slight preference for the powerful ex Australian who is already a Group 1 winner.
Asmar is a strong staying colt who might just be done for speed against these better rivals & Giovanni Boldini has already shown good form at Group 1 level just getting caught in
the Breeders Cup Juvenile Colts Turf, he also has 2 wins on Dundalk's polytrack.
Cooptado is an ex South American who on all his videos looks a strong staying animal so the drop in distance must be a concern as to be fair is this classier opposition.
Long John to give Godolphin 3 out of 3 on the night.
On paper the Al Quoz Sprint looks at the mercy of Shea Shea who is an outstanding performer over Meydan's 5f distance, I certainly cannot see old rival Sole Power turning the form around as Shea Shea is the faster animal.
He faces a new opponent in the speedy ex Hong Kong handicapper Amber Sky (see video) who blazes a trail in front as he did recently when winning the Kent & Curwen Centenary Sprint Cup Group 1, I don't believe he is in Shea Shea's class though.
Old Medicean Man will be hard to keep out of the frame after 3 superb wins earlier in The Carnival on Turf & Tapeta. Ahtoug is a much improved sprinter & is another who could easily hit the frame following a good Dubai season.
Berlino Di Tiger is an American representative who to be honest on form has it all to do as does Catcall who for me has just not handled this faster surface in the UAE.
Dux Scholar could easily run into a place but I would say more likely to finish 6th or 7th, Hamza is an improved sprinter who will face a battle for the lead on Saturday & may just need this first run of the season. Beat Baby has been running quite well but this a big step up, while unfortunately for Sholaan this is Meydan not Jebel Ali.
Old Joy And Fun won this race in 2010 & finished 3rd in 2012, he is 10 now & it is some ask for a horse of his age.
Shea Shea has to be a confident selection non betting in this with Sole Power, Ahtoug & Medicean Man fighting out the places.
The first of the Group 1's is the Dubai Golden Shaheen:
Krypton Factor:
Winner 2 years ago but has been below par pretty much ever since.
Balmont Mast:
Runner up last year but just not quite been getting the rub of the green so far this season, good draw on Saturday but may just find one too good.
Nawwaar:
No hope.
Sterling City:
Would appear to be Hong Kong's number one hope, he has no form on Tapeta but on breeding it should prove no issue. He was unlucky in last year's Hong Kong sprint & must go in with a live chance.
Reynaldothewizard:
Last year's defending Champion who bounced right back to form with an excellent run last time behind Rich Tapestry, he must now back that up & he had the run of the race last time.
Zee Bros:
Showed up well on his UAE debut & ids not without hope in this.
United Color:
Shown precious little since first time up win, outclassed.
Complicate:
Steadily improving at sprint distances, more to do in this but could hit the frame.
Russian Soul:
Gained a deserved win 2 starts back & had a rough passage last time.
Jameise:
Has had a great Carnival & arguably ran as well as ever last time, stuck in behind horses before finally being extricated to run on very strongly to get 4th, a better run through on Saturday & I can see him running a huge race.
My Catch:
Too much for this young horse this season.
Rich Tapestry:
Looked to have been primed to win the Mahab Al Shimal last time winning cosily which was a massive improvement on his previous form. Will do well to better that as he seemed very fit, almost as though that race was his number 1 target.
Bello:
Not much of a run last time but work to do.
I really like Jamesie 16/1 CORAL in this & fully expect him to go very well with Sterling City looking sure to be involved.
Dubai Duty Free Group 1:
Mshawish:
Been my long term fancy for this & I have no reason to change can give Frankie a first Group 1 win for his new employees.
Just A Way:
Continued his improved recent form in Japan with an easy win in The Nakayama Kinen at the start of the month before that he had beaten Gentildonna comfortably. Clearly a very useful animal who is feared.
Anaerobio:
Had his day in the sun when winning the Al Fahidi Fort earlier in the Carnival, outclassed in this.
The Fugue:
Top class fantastic mare who was unlucky at the end of last season in both The Breeders Cup & Hong Kong Cup, this is a big ask first time out for me over the shortest trip she has run over since finishing 4th in the 1000 Guineas. Class should see her involved but fitness may tell.
Educate:
Hopelessly out of his depth.
Tokei Halo:
Dangerous if aloud to dictate but on form for me is not up to this, well put in his place by Just A Way recently.
Trade Storm:
Not up to this class.
Tasaday:
Won nicely last time, has the class to be involved & fitness on her side, drop back a furlong is not ideal in my eyes.
Blazing Speed:
Couldn't have this Hong Kong ex British horse being anywhere near good enough.
Dank:
Comfortable winner of last year's Filly & Mare Turf, this is her first time in against the boys so would have to be worried that she can cope with this.
Vercingetorix:
Still unbeaten but everything has gone to plan including when exploiting stable tactics to win a Group 1 last time, iffy draw & iffy attitude for me make him very much oppose able as I just do not think he finds anything off the bridle & will not relish a proper battle
Logotype:
Japanese 2000 Guineas winner last season who failed to stay on his next 2 starts, very encouraging reappearance behind Just A Way recently, a player.
Hunter's Light:
Good horse who is just below genuine Group 1 class, has a stinker of a draw which is enough to oppose him with.
Been a fan of Mshawish 7/1 NAP Generally Available for a while now & am very confident he can win from the Japanese raiders Just A Way & Logotype.
Dubai Sheema Classic Group 1:
Excellent Result:
Improved all Carnival, am a big fan of this young improving animal who would have been a very unlucky loser last time had he not got out. Does not need to improve by a lot again to be involved & I think at the prices he is value.
Mars:
Overrated, underdeveloped & over faced again.
Denim And Ruby:
Last year's narrow 2nd in The Japan Cup, that by a along way was her best performance to date, could easily still be improving but this is asking a lot for me.
Magician:
Last year's unexpected Breeders Cup Turf winner, should be ready for this & will need to be.
Mount Athos:
Ran well last time without ever looking like wining, this is much better that he is used to.
Dunaden:
Grand old horse but has never proved himself as Top Class at 1m4f.
Ambivalent:
Not up to this especially against the boys.
Meandre:
Done ok so far in the UAE but is not up to Top Class Group 1 level.
Festive Cheer:
Looks to be in to act as a pacemaker for Magician, not up to this level as yet on his European form.
Dubday:
Minor very minor stakes horse in Germany, has won 3 Local Qatari Group 1's recently beating last year's 3rd Very Nice Name, would be a big shock if he could be involved.
Twilight Eclipse:
Rare US Turf horse who is capable but not against European opposition.
Gentildonna:
Dual Japan Cup winner who scraped home last season, easily brushed aside in this last year & she was quite disappointing on her prep run for this, the draw has also not been kind.
Empoli:
Clearly has an aversion to the stalls which is a worry for this race, could not fancy even if he consented to load.
Dominant:
Had his day in the sun when others were in trouble in behind in last year's Hong Kong Vase, been put in his place in Hong Kong twice since & not for me.
Cirrus Des Aigles:
Winner 2 years ago & a fantastic servant over the years but the draw is shocking & he is vulnerable to younger rivals.
I am going in with my mate Excellent Result 16/1 BET365 / SKYBET the improving young horse.
Dubai World Cup Group 1:
Prince Bishop:
In the form of his life at present winning the last 2 rounds of the Al Maktoum Challenge, loves the surface, finished 10th 2 years ago so does have to improve to figure this time around.
Belshazzar:
Japan Cup Dirt winner who before that had hardly set the world alight in his native land, on his most recent start he was a beaten favourite behind a 274/1 winner (see video of that race below), hardly inspires you to believe he can win a World Cup does it?
Vancouverite:
Finished strongly in a very slowly run race on Super Saturday, switches to Tapeta here for a crack at the big one. His sire's record on synthetics is just ok so this a big ask for a very promising horse.
Akeed Mofeed:
My Derby fancy 2 years ago but he failed to deliver in Ireland as a 3 year old, he was quickly sold to Hong Kong & has developed into a decent animal out there but this a step up for which I don't see him being good enough.
Sanshaawes:
Has improved though the Carnival but to me only got 2nd behind Prince Bishop last time because other rivals were going backwards & if he was to be winning a World Cup he should be beating Prince Bishop. However it is a weaker renewal so he could easily place.
African Story:
Has always been the boys in blues number 1 hope for this, throw out his last run it was just not him, I have been told he takes some knowing so William Buick who was thrust into the ride on his latest start was disadvantaged & he sat far to far back. He has an excellent draw on Saturday & is reunited with SDS so a much better run can be expected. He has been my idea of the winner for some time.
Hillstar:
Has been over faced ever since his Royal Ascot win last year & this is no exception, not sure the surface will suit either.
Military Attack:
Cannot fathom how a horse called Rave who I saw win an Ascot handicap on King George day 3 years ago for John Hills can seriously be fancied to win a Dubai World Cup,
Now known as Military Attack he has developed into one of the best middle distance horses in Hong Kong winning 5 times since his move, he has beaten nothing for me except local Hong Kong horses that are in the majority horses who could not make it in Europe, the only horse of note he has beaten is Sajjhaa who won last year's Dubai Duty Free but she was over the top by April last year.
Sorry I will be amazed if he is anywhere near good enough.
Side Glance:
Well out of his depth.
Surfer:
Decent local animal but not up to this Grade.
Hokko Tarumae:
Synthetic & Dirt specialist in Japan at a lower level than this, well held in the Japan Cup Dirt & finished 2nd to 274/1 shot Copano Ricky last time just in front of Belshazzar. Not for me.
Ruler Of The World:
Awful Derby winner who was stuffed in the Arc then ran ok nut still easily beaten on bad ground in The Champion Stakes, will not have the pace for 10f at the top level or be good enough let alone act on the surface.
Mukhadram:
Never expected him to be in a Dubai World Cup but can see the temptation, he should
cope with the surface & is one of only a few Top Class animals in this race, draw is the issue as he is best on the pace making the running. Would love him to win but am concerned.
Red Cadeaux:
Solid grand old international campaigner, wouldn't put it past him running well but draw is bad.
Cat O'Mountain:
Amazed he's in a World Cup field but has already suffered from a nightmare Carnival draw & he has another on Saturday, not for me.
Ron The Greek:
Former Top class US triple Grade 1 winner who always found one too good in the very best races now in Saudi where he won on his first start cosily, widest draw of all is no help.
African Story 12/1 NB BET365 / SKYBET has been my long term fancy for this & I see no reason to change. Mukahdram is a horse I love but his draw is an issue although he should still be involved in what looks a fairly weak World Cup. Perhaps Sanshaawes can follow him home.
@fttfracing
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