Hello & welcome along to my latest blog ahead of the best evening meeting of the year on Thursday night at Sandown, unfortunately this year due to the persistent heavy rain of the last few days the fields throughout the evening are lacking depth.
The feature event is The Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes run over the Eclipse distance as a result of the weather only 5 runners go to post after a stellar entry at the 5 day stage. Sir Michael Stoute has won 3 in the last 10 years (he has 8 wins in total since its inception). This year he is represented by Hillstar who did not stay the extended 1m5f at Chester in the ground a few weeks ago behind Brown Panther, this is much more his trip although the ground appears to have gone for him on Thursday night. He has a win on soft as a 2yo but that was against lesser opposition than he faces here.
The most interesting horse in the field is Remote who has not been seen since Royal Ascot last year when he completed a hat trick by winning the Tercentenary Stakes Group 3 in stylish fashion, he has been given plenty of time to mature & is of course a half brother to
last weekend's runaway Irish 2000 Guineas winner Kingman. Remote is by Dansili who's better offspring are appreciate top of the ground although he can get horses who handle deep ground but they tend to be lesser pattern performers, on Remote's side is his dam Zenda, whose best win was on soft in a French 1000 Guineas. As a starting point for a season after a long time off this ground is far from ideal so whatever happens I will not be judging Remote to harshly as he is sure to be better back on proper summer ground.
Top Notch Tonto steps up in trip on his favoured ground after failing to fire in 2 starts so far this term, stamina has to be the issue for him & he needs to show more than he has so far.
This is Sharestan's grade, he acts on the ground better than most & he stays, his trainer & jockey are in good form so a big run looks on the cards against opposition who will likely appreciate the run or will find it hard on the ground.
Sheikhzayadroad has some form with cut but it is nowhere near his best, he ran well after winning in Dubai this year & tries to step up to pattern company back in the UK, he is a tricky ride & I feel his best form has come in big fields where he can be buried of a strong pace which he is unlikely to get in this.
Unfortunately due to the lack of runners it is a no betting race for me.
A major trial for the Ascot Gold Cup the Henry II Stakes Group 2 has attracted the strongest field of the night. In recent years it has been won by a series of nearly horses who have never quite gone on from this race.
Brown Panther heads the field giving 2lbs away to his rivals after a facile success in a race that fell apart at Chester, he is very classy at his best & ground is fine for him, should be hard to keep out of the frame.
Camborne is also giving 2lbs away, he steps up to 2 miles for the first time after finishing 7th in the Yorkshire Cup 2 weeks ago. He should stay fine but I cannot see him being good enough. Biographer has his ground as he has had on a few occasions when upped in grade but each time he has disappointed like on his first start of the year at Nottingham last month, a horse I have always liked I now need to see come back to form before backing him again. El Salvador ran an excellent race upped to extreme distances in last season's Gold Cup but never went on from that, he is not this class & is readily passed over. German raider Girolamo has an affinity for soft ground & will stay this distance, he was badly outpaced on good ground on his return to the track earlier in the season so a step up in trip looks bound to suit. He needs to step up on what he has shown so far but the extra distance should allow him to do that its just whether he is good enough to take a hand in the finish.
High Jinx has an extremely poor win record for a horse as good as he is, beaten when favourite last year, the step up will help but you just could not predict when he was going to pop up....if he ever does again.
High class former hurdler & quality Chaser at his best Menorah makes his Flat debut at the age of 9, fascinating to see how he gets on at a discipline he has never tried. Ground is fine for him but you would be very disappointed if he was anywhere near good enough to get involved.
Oriental Fox stepped up from handicaps with aplomb in the Sagaro Stakes behind Tac De Boistron travelling well in behind & kicking for home only to be overwhelmed by a horse who was ready to roll first time out. Oriental Fox looked excellent in his own appearance, that race will have brought him on nicely for this, he acts on soft & is improving at the right time. He appears to be Mark Johnston's Gold Cup horse this year & I am on him at massive odds for the big one in June, am expecting him to go close on Thursday.
Seismos is an ex German colt whose form ties in with Girolamo, he managed to win at the highest level last year over 1m4f whereas his compatriot did not, he has been highly tried since finishing 6th in The Cadran on his first try at staying distances, after that he finished 3rd in The Canadian International, was unplaced in Hong Kong & Dubai. He is now with Marco Botti in the ownership of Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock so we already know his season long aim. He should stay fine with the ground be no issue, as a Group 1 winner he is respected & the stable have a good line on the stayers through Tac De Boistron, chances. Tiger Cliff ran a fantastic race in The Yorkshire Cup staying on all the way up the straight, ground will be ok for him here but he has to find 2.5 lengths with Oriental Fox from last season's Cesarewitch when they were off level weights & he was strongly fancied yet was fairly disappointing. Both look to have improved since but I can see Tiger Cliff being over bet & I would much rather be with the Fox than the Tiger. Whiplash Willie made a remarkable return to the track after a near 2.5 year absence at Salisbury a month ago battling all the way up the straight from a favourable mark, he looked a Group performer in the making all those years ago but now is the big test to see if he can go on again & avoid the bounce factor on ground he is not proven on.
On all known form Body Language has a mountain to climb despite receiving weight on ground that will suit.
Oriental Fox 25/1 E/W BetVictor / Stan James / Ladbrokes / Coral I feel is a decent bet in this especially at his inflated odds.
Richard Hannon Snr has been the man to follow in The National Stakes Listed over the last few years winning 4 in the last 10 years, his son now making his own waves has been keeping up the family tradition with the juveniles & this years saddles the useful Tiggy Wiggy who was well put in her place at York last time previous to that she had shown ability to handle cut when tenaciously winning at Salisbury, player from a good draw. Cajoling had been declared at Beverley tomorrow night (now abandoned), she turned over Russian Heroine comfortably at Windsor when unfancied she has since been scooped up by Qatar racing, the 2nd didn't really enhance the form over this course & distance last week, she needs to improve especially given the ground. Cock Of The North has not been seen since winning the Brocklesby which is unusual so he is clearly thought to be above average, ground will hold no fears & has the plum draw to attack.
Escalating finished 7th behind Cock Of The North in the Brockelesby, he has since won twice since, he was lucky on his last start when giving Kibaar a huge bump & just holding his renewed challenge, a big horse who will keep improving, ground will be fine but he has an awkward draw against some pacey rivals.
Roudee did not live up to his name & win at the Roodee but he still ran well, he may lack the class of a couple of his rivals. Via Via won comfortably on his debut at 6f for last year's winning trainer, he needed the 6 furlongs to get on top & the drop back is a slight concern from a unhelpful draw. Bonnie Grey is a her names suggests a bonnie little grey filly who travelled well on soft ground at Warwick before picking up well to win going away, her dam was a very useful sprinter & she has inherited her mum's pace, not to be underestimated here.
Not a race I will be getting involved with.
The Heron Stakes has cut up badly from a decent entry with just 5 facing the starter, it usually goes to unexposed animals from decent yards. End Of Line was out of his depth in The French Guineas last time after previously getting beaten up over course & distance by What About Carlo that form gives him a chance in this.
Indy beat Penny Drops over 6f on soft on his debut running away at the finish, step up in trip will be fine & is respected in this. Master Carpenter drops back to a more suitable trip after failing to stay on his last two starts at 10 furlongs, he has the best form on offer, I am not sure he truly wants this ground & that will probably be what beats him again here. Nonno Guilio is a decent stamp of a horse but showed nothing on his UK debut at Epsom last month, ground should hold no fears for him but you would need to see much more from him.
Patentar ran ok stepped up in Grade on his seasonal debut behind Toormore, form that is mixed with the winner & 3rd being well beaten next time while the 2nd came out to win The Dante, he should be able to be competitive at least in this company.
Non bet race.
As long as Abseil handles the ground as well as he did at Chester he must take some beating in The Whitsun Cup Handicap, he looks extremely well in off his mark of 92 against exposed rivals. Common Touch is now with a new trainer who is usually worth taking note of during July & August, he is on a career high mark & will no doubt need this. Secret Art won comfortably last time on the AWT at Kempton, he should be ok on this ground but has been hit quite hard by the handicapper.
Tinghir showed nothing in The Spring Cup at Newbury & needs to bounce back here.
Tobacco Road was last behind Secret Art last time, he needs more here but the ground has come in his favour & he should be ok off his current mark.
Dream Walker is a consistent horse who has been running well from his new marks, he was a staying on 3rd off 88 last time, he remains on that mark here with ground to suit he should be involved. Dark Emerald is respected with Fallon booked for an in form trainer, tough horse who should give his running but a place looks his best bet.
Myboyalfie excels in deep ground although he has never won from a mark this high & that was his undoing last time. George Cinq will do well to turn around form with Dark Emerald last time & looks set to struggle here.
Jodies Jem has form with several of these & that leaves her a lot to find.
Ishikawa won readily under a astute ride from his young jockey two starts back on soft ground from Russian Realm who has won since, he himself has been comfortably beaten since off his new mark, he now goes up in grade & has no weight on his back which will be a blessing if conditions deteriorate further, not without hope.
Abseil a confident selection in the finale (Non Runner)
The feature event is The Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes run over the Eclipse distance as a result of the weather only 5 runners go to post after a stellar entry at the 5 day stage. Sir Michael Stoute has won 3 in the last 10 years (he has 8 wins in total since its inception).
The most interesting horse in the field is Remote who has not been seen since Royal Ascot last year when he completed a hat trick by winning the Tercentenary Stakes Group 3 in stylish fashion, he has been given plenty of time to mature & is of course a half brother to
last weekend's runaway Irish 2000 Guineas winner Kingman. Remote is by Dansili who's better offspring are appreciate top of the ground although he can get horses who handle deep ground but they tend to be lesser pattern performers, on Remote's side is his dam Zenda, whose best win was on soft in a French 1000 Guineas. As a starting point for a season after a long time off this ground is far from ideal so whatever happens I will not be judging Remote to harshly as he is sure to be better back on proper summer ground.
Top Notch Tonto steps up in trip on his favoured ground after failing to fire in 2 starts so far this term, stamina has to be the issue for him & he needs to show more than he has so far.
This is Sharestan's grade, he acts on the ground better than most & he stays, his trainer & jockey are in good form so a big run looks on the cards against opposition who will likely appreciate the run or will find it hard on the ground.
Sheikhzayadroad has some form with cut but it is nowhere near his best, he ran well after winning in Dubai this year & tries to step up to pattern company back in the UK, he is a tricky ride & I feel his best form has come in big fields where he can be buried of a strong pace which he is unlikely to get in this.
Unfortunately due to the lack of runners it is a no betting race for me.
A major trial for the Ascot Gold Cup the Henry II Stakes Group 2 has attracted the strongest field of the night. In recent years it has been won by a series of nearly horses who have never quite gone on from this race.
Brown Panther heads the field giving 2lbs away to his rivals after a facile success in a race that fell apart at Chester, he is very classy at his best & ground is fine for him, should be hard to keep out of the frame.
Camborne is also giving 2lbs away, he steps up to 2 miles for the first time after finishing 7th in the Yorkshire Cup 2 weeks ago. He should stay fine but I cannot see him being good enough. Biographer has his ground as he has had on a few occasions when upped in grade but each time he has disappointed like on his first start of the year at Nottingham last month, a horse I have always liked I now need to see come back to form before backing him again. El Salvador ran an excellent race upped to extreme distances in last season's Gold Cup but never went on from that, he is not this class & is readily passed over. German raider Girolamo has an affinity for soft ground & will stay this distance, he was badly outpaced on good ground on his return to the track earlier in the season so a step up in trip looks bound to suit. He needs to step up on what he has shown so far but the extra distance should allow him to do that its just whether he is good enough to take a hand in the finish.
High Jinx has an extremely poor win record for a horse as good as he is, beaten when favourite last year, the step up will help but you just could not predict when he was going to pop up....if he ever does again.
High class former hurdler & quality Chaser at his best Menorah makes his Flat debut at the age of 9, fascinating to see how he gets on at a discipline he has never tried. Ground is fine for him but you would be very disappointed if he was anywhere near good enough to get involved.
Oriental Fox stepped up from handicaps with aplomb in the Sagaro Stakes behind Tac De Boistron travelling well in behind & kicking for home only to be overwhelmed by a horse who was ready to roll first time out. Oriental Fox looked excellent in his own appearance, that race will have brought him on nicely for this, he acts on soft & is improving at the right time. He appears to be Mark Johnston's Gold Cup horse this year & I am on him at massive odds for the big one in June, am expecting him to go close on Thursday.
Seismos is an ex German colt whose form ties in with Girolamo, he managed to win at the highest level last year over 1m4f whereas his compatriot did not, he has been highly tried since finishing 6th in The Cadran on his first try at staying distances, after that he finished 3rd in The Canadian International, was unplaced in Hong Kong & Dubai. He is now with Marco Botti in the ownership of Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock so we already know his season long aim. He should stay fine with the ground be no issue, as a Group 1 winner he is respected & the stable have a good line on the stayers through Tac De Boistron, chances. Tiger Cliff ran a fantastic race in The Yorkshire Cup staying on all the way up the straight, ground will be ok for him here but he has to find 2.5 lengths with Oriental Fox from last season's Cesarewitch when they were off level weights & he was strongly fancied yet was fairly disappointing. Both look to have improved since but I can see Tiger Cliff being over bet & I would much rather be with the Fox than the Tiger. Whiplash Willie made a remarkable return to the track after a near 2.5 year absence at Salisbury a month ago battling all the way up the straight from a favourable mark, he looked a Group performer in the making all those years ago but now is the big test to see if he can go on again & avoid the bounce factor on ground he is not proven on.
Oriental Fox 25/1 E/W BetVictor / Stan James / Ladbrokes / Coral I feel is a decent bet in this especially at his inflated odds.
Richard Hannon Snr has been the man to follow in The National Stakes Listed over the last few years winning 4 in the last 10 years, his son now making his own waves has been keeping up the family tradition with the juveniles & this years saddles the useful Tiggy Wiggy who was well put in her place at York last time previous to that she had shown ability to handle cut when tenaciously winning at Salisbury, player from a good draw. Cajoling had been declared at Beverley tomorrow night (now abandoned), she turned over Russian Heroine comfortably at Windsor when unfancied she has since been scooped up by Qatar racing, the 2nd didn't really enhance the form over this course & distance last week, she needs to improve especially given the ground. Cock Of The North has not been seen since winning the Brocklesby which is unusual so he is clearly thought to be above average, ground will hold no fears & has the plum draw to attack.
Escalating finished 7th behind Cock Of The North in the Brockelesby, he has since won twice since, he was lucky on his last start when giving Kibaar a huge bump & just holding his renewed challenge, a big horse who will keep improving, ground will be fine but he has an awkward draw against some pacey rivals.
Roudee did not live up to his name & win at the Roodee but he still ran well, he may lack the class of a couple of his rivals. Via Via won comfortably on his debut at 6f for last year's winning trainer, he needed the 6 furlongs to get on top & the drop back is a slight concern from a unhelpful draw. Bonnie Grey is a her names suggests a bonnie little grey filly who travelled well on soft ground at Warwick before picking up well to win going away, her dam was a very useful sprinter & she has inherited her mum's pace, not to be underestimated here.
Not a race I will be getting involved with.
The Heron Stakes has cut up badly from a decent entry with just 5 facing the starter, it usually goes to unexposed animals from decent yards. End Of Line was out of his depth in The French Guineas last time after previously getting beaten up over course & distance by What About Carlo that form gives him a chance in this.
Indy beat Penny Drops over 6f on soft on his debut running away at the finish, step up in trip will be fine & is respected in this. Master Carpenter drops back to a more suitable trip after failing to stay on his last two starts at 10 furlongs, he has the best form on offer, I am not sure he truly wants this ground & that will probably be what beats him again here. Nonno Guilio is a decent stamp of a horse but showed nothing on his UK debut at Epsom last month, ground should hold no fears for him but you would need to see much more from him.
Patentar ran ok stepped up in Grade on his seasonal debut behind Toormore, form that is mixed with the winner & 3rd being well beaten next time while the 2nd came out to win The Dante, he should be able to be competitive at least in this company.
Non bet race.
Tinghir showed nothing in The Spring Cup at Newbury & needs to bounce back here.
Tobacco Road was last behind Secret Art last time, he needs more here but the ground has come in his favour & he should be ok off his current mark.
Dream Walker is a consistent horse who has been running well from his new marks, he was a staying on 3rd off 88 last time, he remains on that mark here with ground to suit he should be involved.
Myboyalfie excels in deep ground although he has never won from a mark this high & that was his undoing last time. George Cinq will do well to turn around form with Dark Emerald last time & looks set to struggle here.
Jodies Jem has form with several of these & that leaves her a lot to find.
Ishikawa won readily under a astute ride from his young jockey two starts back on soft ground from Russian Realm who has won since, he himself has been comfortably beaten since off his new mark, he now goes up in grade & has no weight on his back which will be a blessing if conditions deteriorate further, not without hope.
@fttfracing
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