Newcastle: Thursday 26th June 2014 (Northumberland Plate Meeting)

Hello all & welcome along to the first of this week's blog's, I trust I find you well in the middle of the post Royal Ascot hangover....luckily the racing takes a turn in the right direction towards the end of the week with The 3 day Northumberland Plate Meeting kicking off on Tyneside at Gosforth Park on Thursday afternoon culminating in Newcastle's big Flat race of the year the Pitman's Derby on Saturday afternoon at 3:50pm.

 Don't get me wrong it is still in the majority average fare on Thursday but it is the curtain raiser to much more.

The first race of the meeting looks made for Aktabantay who made a highly encouraging debut behind Godolphin's Elite Gardens at Newmarket going down by a nose, he moved powerfully throughout that race. Hot favourite next time out he was lets be honest disappointing as everything appeared to go ok but he failed to pick up in the way he had shown at Newmarket, perhaps racing towards the pace did not suit him. 
He has shown enough to be able to win a race & has been found a good opportunity here.
According to the trainers own blog on the Stan James website he will not risk the horse on lightening quick so be wary of that ahead of tomorrow. 

Sea Wolf made a winning debut at Doncaster when strong favourite Beacon played up, travelling well of the pace before asserting close home, he is quite a sizeable horse so Beverley over 5f was never really going to suit last time & so it proved as he did his best work towards the finish although he has a lot on at these weights giving 7lbs to Aktabantay.

Geordie George represents Coventry Stakes winning trainer John Quinn, he handled the ground better than his opponents when making a winning debut in heavy ground & an extremely slow time last time, work to do giving away 7lbs on much quicker ground. Vimy Ridge has shown a good level of form so far but has work to do giving away 4lbs to Aktabantay. 
Dominada will need to be smart on debut to get involved, on pedigree he will need further & time. 
Just The Tip won well on her 2nd start after a lacklustre debut, that was in soft ground at Musselburgh & she faces a potentially classy rival today so will need more on faster ground.

Another 2yo race follows one of those median auction maidens which never really appeal as betting propositions, of those that have run Danny O'Ruairc must be respected, he made a highly encouraging debut in a weak enough race last time out over course & distance staying on strongly towards the finish, this better ground will suit for this son of one of the freshman sires of the year so far Fast Company. 

Indian Keys has been beaten on all of his 3 starts to date, he was extremely one paced last time out & needs more although is favoured by the weights on Thursday. 

Four newcomers take their chance Aprovado from The Dod's stable, cheap at £14,500 as a yearling in 2012 he is related to 4 winners at a low level although further in his pedigree is Attraction (2nd dam's daughter Flirtation). 

Fast Charlie is another son of Fast Company this time from the Ann Duffield stable, he is a half brother to 5 winners including Bond City who was pattern placed at his best. Sales price has gradually rose & fetched £25,000 at DBS Breeze up back in April, should know his job & could easily figure. 

Great Park is from Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner's Vale Of York's first crop, he is related to 1 winner so far but there are plenty of pattern performers further in the pedigree & his stable does well with a small amount of runners. 

Third Time Lucky is from Richard Fahey's powerful stable, he is a half brother to 1 winner & again there are plenty of pattern performers further back in his pedigree at around this distance, he cost £22,000 at The Craven Breeze up sale where he did a useful breeze really grabbing the ground & showing good acceleration, quite a small robust colt he would not need to be anything special to be competitive on debut.

A tight knit 9 runner extended 1m handicap is up next; 

Forst Bastion heads the weights after a down the field run in last week's Buckingham Palace, in good form so far this year he now finds himself on a mark he has yet to be competitive from in handicaps. On the plus side is that he has decent form in small fields which could prove an asset. 

Hi There is in a similar predicament & has shown little on his last 2 starts in more competitive races, he was a well beaten 4th last year from a much lower mark with ground against him he is passed over. 

Marcret should be competitive from his slightly reduced mark although he has shown a distinct liking for Chester & no where else so far & is another who's best form is on soft. 

Dance And Dance followed up a good run with not unsurprisingly a bad one, he was a well beaten 7th in this race last year from a 1lb higher in the weights & a mark of 96, he races off 91 on Thursday but is just so unreliable that you would be more likely to be sent to an institution than be part of the payout queue after backing him. 

Heavy Metal won just 5 days ago making it 2 wins so far this season, he has been much more tractable so far this year, up an extra 6lbs in a better race he will need more but cannot discount in his current mood. 

Bold Prediction has steadily risen in the weights after a 3 straight 2nds against well handicapped / in-form rivals, he will need more from a career high mark. 

Old Dubai Dynamo has been a credit to connections down the years & has once again been in good form recently from lower marks, he was well held of this mark last weekend against a well handicapped rival & was a one paced 5th in this race last year from this mark. 

Norse Blues was 4th in Dubai Dynamo's race on Saturday, it was his best run for awhile & he looks to be nearing a return to the winners enclosure as he is now 2lbs below his last winning mark. 

Baraweez is on the improve at present with 2 wins from his last 3 starts, versatile regards ground he races from a career high mark 7lbs above his last win at Musselburgh & should be involved. 

The only race I would consider having a bet in & after Sat's run I will chance Norse Blues (Shocking run almost tailed off).

A  low grade 2 mile handicap has attracted just 7 runners with Alan Swinbank's Entihaa heading the weights off a mark he has yet to taste success from, better ground will help aid his cause & has to be respected if you can excuse his last run as the time before he had finished 3rd after showing up well for most of the way in a much better class of race. 
Nashville is a slow horse who has been placed on his last 2 starts on softer ground, he should be competitive but again has work to do to be winning this. 

Crackentorp is not the horse he was showing little on his 3 starts this term, he has been 12th last year, 2nd off 98 in 2012 & 12th in 2010 in the Northumberland Plate over the years. If he retains any ability he ought to have a chance in this off a mark of 72 even though he would prefer softer ground. 

Ultimate is a decent dual purpose horse who is well weighted on his best Chase form & is in between his last 2 winning Turf marks with Paul Pickard taking over from the female riders who have ridden him too little success on his last 3 starts, would not be the biggest surprise were he to bounce back. 

Rumble Of Thunder is another dual purpose performer who judged on his last run is weighted to be competitive.

Knightly Escapade has been competitive off marks slightly higher than his current rating of 69 in the past but that was some time ago, a return to better ground will help but will need more. 

Rayadour took advantage of a much reduced Flat mark in heavy last time just holding Rumble Of Thunder after a quick fire hat trick at a modest level over hurdles, should not be discounted in his current rich vein of form but his lack of fast ground is a worry.

   

An awful Class 6 handicap which is basically a seller in all but name is worth avoiding. 

Only one grade up is 1m2f handicap with just 6 runners;

 Bling King who back in the day was 7th in the 2010 Chesham Stakes & was also beaten less than 3.5 lengths behind French Derby winner Sainois back in 2011 when trained in France has dropped a long way racing's class ladder. He has still yet to win off a mark higher than 71 but did manage to keep on well albeit 8 lengths behind an easy well handicapped class dropper last time out, this is a much easier contest & he could just be able to cope with his mark against the opposition. 

Corton Lad is now on his last winning mark & has been running pretty well over further on his last 2 starts, back down in trip will suit & he can put it up to Bling King. 

Jacobs Son returns to Turf off a 5lb lower mark than his AW predominantly Fibresand mark, he has yet to win on grass or show any real form on the traditional surface & is passed over. 

Woodstock looks harshly treated on his old poor Flat form even with his rider's 5lb claim. Outlaw Torn has been easily beaten the last twice from this career high mark & will do well to get involved. 

Painted Tail has not been seen since a reasonable run over hurdles in December last year, on old flat form she is handicapped to get involved having won from a 1lb higher mark in 2012 & was still reasonably competitive from that same mark last year in a light campaign. 

The last puzzle will take some solving & is not a race I wish to spend any time on.

@fttfracing