Wednesday 30 July 2014

Glorious Goodwood Day Three Thursday 1st August 2014

Hello once more & welcome along to the blog, Its the halfway point of the week & I hope were all doing well, finding them winners & enjoying the gorgeous weather that we have been blessed with, England in summertime....for me there really is no better place.


The feature event on Day 3 is the Goodwood Cup for the stayers over 2 miles, last years winner Brown Panther is back to defend his crown that he took so impressively last time around. Dual winners are not uncommon the last to complete the double was the great Double Trigger in '97 / '98. 
3 x 6yo's have won in the last 10 years.
3 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 7yo's have won in the last 10 years.
7 of the last 10 winners last ran in The Ascot Gold Cup.
3 winners in the last 10 years were trying the trip of 2 miles for the first time.

Ahzeemah has run 3 of the worst races of his life on his last 3 starts, he has not returned the same horse this time around. At his best he would have a real chance in this as he showed when a good 2nd last season. 



Saeed Bin Suroor also fields old Cavalryman & Excellent Result; Cavalryman received a ride of the highest order when finally winning a Group race at 12f last time out, earlier in the year he had been in outstanding form in Dubai. He was only 6th last year & in this country has only won at Listed level at this trip. 



Excellent Result is an improving young horse who has won at 1m6f in Dubai earlier in the season, on that run 2 miles should prove no problem. He ran a decent race on his return in the slowly run Princess Of Wales's that Cavalryman dictated which would not have suited Excellent Result as he excels off a strong pace. Ground will suit much better on Thursday & I would expect him to go very well at rewarding odds the only stumbling block is that he is ridden by Jamie Spencer who has a poor record for Godolphin. 



Northumberland Plate winner Angel Gabriel takes the massive step up to Group company after being transformed from just an average handicapper to a top quality one by Richard Fahey, this demands more than he has shown & I don't see him being good enough to trouble the principles. 



Brass Ring is a funny horse who has been campaigned as if connections are unsure of his trip, he tried Listed & Group company at up to 13f with little success before being raised a full mile in trip to contest the Queen Alexandra at The Royal Meeting over 2m5f he ran extremely well to finish a good 3rd but this is a whole other level. 



Brown Panther did not get home in the end in The Gold Cup after starting the season if fine form with wins at Chester & Sandown, he showed faster ground was no bother to him when an impressive winner of this race last year & is the one they all have to beat once more. 



Old Forgotten Voice has been the most wonderful horse over the years winning twice at Royal Ascot, once at Glorious Goodwood & good graded prize over hurdles. He had an abortive trip to Australia last backend as the ground never came right for him, he has returned in form finishing 2nd at Newbury behind Mount Athos & a good 4th in The Hardwicke at Ascot. This is the first time he has tried 2 miles on the flat but that should prove no barrier for him but the quality of opposition may just be too much. 



Whiplash Willie returned from a near 3 year absence to a battling success at Salisbury back in May before an excellent run finishing 3rd to Brown Panther in The Henry II at Sandown. Ground is a massive issue to him as he has had problems with his legs over the years & I cannot see connections risking him on fast summer ground. So for me would need a huge deluge over the next 2 days to take part.



Estimate ran a mighty race in The Gold Cup & with an uninterrupted preparation for me she would have won once more, forgot any of the recent negative news surrounding her, it was not her fault or anyone elses at her yards. All has gone smoothly since Ascot & she must go close. 



Moment In Time is now where near good enough on what she has shown this season & is readily passed over.

Will chance Excellent Result at rewarding odds 25/1 SkyBet / BetVictor or likely bigger overnight. 


Opening up the card is a 3yo handicap which has been a fabulous race over the years won by some progressive young horses; 
Grandeur 2012 Won 2 x Grade 2's & 2 x Listed races since,
Indian Days 2008 Won Bosphorus Cup Group 2 twice '10 & '11 / John Porter Group 3 '11,
Pipedreamer 2007 Won Cambridgeshire '07, Skybet York Stakes Group 2 '08 & Prix Dollar Group 2 '09 &
 Enforcer 2005 Won Darley Stakes Group 3 '05.

Mark Johnston has won 3 renewals in the last 10 years.
John Gosden has won 2 renewals in the last 10 years.
Weight: 8-6 - 9-0
Rating: 91 - 95
5 winners in the last 10 years last raced in the 1m2f handicap at Newmarket's July Meeting.
 8 of the last 10 winners finished no worse than 4th last time out.
No horse has won in the last 10 years at odds bigger than 8/1.
3 favourites have won in the last 10 years.

Roseburg has been most progressive on his last 3 starts winning all of them rising from an opening mark 83 to now race off 102, big ask especially on faster ground giving bundles of weight away. Top Tug has been saved for this since a win on the July course back in May, should still capable from his new mark of 94. 
Pupil stepped back in the right direction last time but is a most doubtful stayer for me as his dam was an out & out speedball (Blue Iris) who won a Super Sprint back in '95. 
Lyn Valley, Insaany & Rainbow Rock prepersent Mark Johnston; Lyn Valley has generally been disappointing so far this season & stepping up to 10f didn't seem to improve him last time. Insaany has improved from a mark of 68 up to his new mark of 85 but it would appear his progression has halted judging by his last 2 runs. 
Rainbow Rock finally broke his maiden at the 7th time of asking last time when stepped up to 10f, he looked an improved horse that day but will need to be upped to this grade. Has always been fairly regarded & might just be finding himself.
Madeed has been crying out for the step up in trip & ran with real credit in the Britannia at the Royal Meeting last time. He has course winning form at 2 & is still lightly raced. Braidley ran ever so well against older horses last time & should appreciate the step up, should not be underestimated. 
Astronereus a half brother to French Derby winner Le Havre was an impressive winner of a maiden last time, he has been allotted a favourable mark on his first foray into handicaps & for local trainer Amanda Perrett has to be a big player. 



Examiner has been staying on stoutly on both his last 2 starts so he should relish the step up in trip, he looks to still be favourably handicapped judged on his early season form. Ventura Quest is the only horse to come from the handicap at the July meeting that has produced 5 winners in the last 10 years, he ran with real credit that day but probably benefited from racing close to the pace & the stands side rail, he needs more to get involved in this for me. Donny Rover has been holding his form extremely well this season but as a result has risen in the handicap & will find this tougher. Erroneous isn't necessarily crying out for the step up trip for me on what he's shown this season & has work to do. Arable broke his maiden in a low grade handicap in good style last time at Haydock, his best 2 runs so far have come with some cut whereas he has looked a bit laboured on fast ground so I would be concerned for him of his new career high mark on Thursday. Collaboration has gone backwards since his 2nd to Windshear finishing ahead of Elite Army at Sandown in the early part of the year, soft ground looks his bag on what we have seen so he cannot be fancied on this ground.      
     
Like the way Astronereus 7/1 Paddy Power won his maiden at Newmarket, ground should be fine & his opening mark looks workable. 


Ivawood towers over his rivals in terms of form & literally in height, a big strong beast who has looked every inch top notch in both his starts including when upped to Group 2 company at Newmarket last time where he was dominant from the start pulling away at the finish, I thought he may step up to 7f after that effort but sticking to 6f should be fine against this sort of opposition. 



Doc Charm was impressive last time out in soft ground at Ayr in what was a weak maiden, he faces vastly different ground this time & a much better class of horse. 
Fox Trotter won nicely on his debut getting the hang of things late on, maiden looks poor at present & like Doc Charm will need much more upped to this grade. 
Jungle Cat did best of those in behind Ivawood last time staying on to finish 2nd clearly talented I just cannot see how he can turn the form around apart from that his stable love this meeting & he himself has already won at the course.
Louie De Palma has won both his starts in decent style under a claiming rider which will have helped immensely, he doesn't have that luxury on Thursday & needs more. Moonraker has clearly had problems since his taking debut victory at Ascot 82 days ago over Mubtaaghaa & Winslow, the race has produced 5 individual winners since. He looks the part & if he is cherry ripe is the one who can give the favourite most to do. 



Sixty was beaten by Jungle Cat on debut here at Goodwood, he then went on to win his maiden nicely next time & is a decent 2nd string but no more. 
Surewecan is another Mark Johnston trainee who has shown useful form winning at Hamilton in between finishing 2nd at Ayr & Doncaster. He was beaten comfortably but last Saturday's subsequent Group 3 winner Osaila last time out & is worth a shot in this grade. 

No bet for me.



Fillies take centre stage next in the 1m6f Group 3 which has a distinctly European flavour courtesy of runners from Ireland, France & Germany. Baroness Daniela has been running mainly in the French provinces at Angers winning a couple of races on desperate ground, previously she had also made the trip to Switzerland a couple of times. She won on her last start at Hamburg in Listed company over 2 miles, the race rather fell apart as Girolamo was once again disappointing. Ground is a major issue on what she has shown so far & in any case would not be up to this grade. 




Beacon Lady has been a fabulous mare for her connections winning many times at Brighton & Epsom so Goodwood should hold no fears for her, this demands more but a place would be a huge result. Missunited ran a fabulous race under a great ride from Jim Crowley in The Gold Cup, she is capable at this distance & surely is the one they all have to beat. 



Nymphea is a capable German filly who won an extremely weak Group 1 last season after finishing 3rd to Moment In Time in a Group 3 at Haydock, suffice to say she has found it tough going since & has been in Turkey, France, England, Hong Kong & Germany. This is easier & she must enter the reckoning if she retains her ability. 



Talent looked woefully one paced last time in a funny race at Haydock, the step up in trip looks the right thing to do as a Classic winner she is respected although I do wonder if she is the same filly this time around. Waila is slow & a bit of a madam but does stay this trip well, she was worn down last time at York against the boys so back against her own sex she is respected. Arabian Comet is an improving 3yo filly who goes up in grade for the first time, on figures she has tonnes to find but that is entirely possible as she is unexposed at the distance. Groovejet unlike her fellow 3yo Arabian Comet is not in good form & even if she was she would not be good enough. 
Honour Bound ran better than I expected in The Bahrain Trophy last time so that was a step back in the right direction, this distance should hold no fears & she is a player. 
Stella Bellissima is a once raced maiden winner from the John Gosden stable owned by Normandie Stud thrown into a Group race.....sound familiar??....it worked with Sultannia earlier in the year & her stablemate who won her maiden well at Newbury is all about stamina being a half sister to strong stayer Samuel (Doncaster Cup Group 2) / Duncan (Irish St Leger Group 1, Prix Foy Group 2 & Yorkshire Cup Group 2) & Deirdre (Listed placed). This is not the best Group 3 in the world so she wouldn't have to improve that much on what she achieved in debut to take a hand. 


Interesting race but not a betting one.


2yo fillies over 7f come next with some useful types potentially on show, there have been some decent winners over the years including last year when future Group 3 winner Amazing Maria beat this year's Oaks 4th Inchilia.
Pachattack won in 2008 she went onto Listed success twice in 2010 & Grade 3 success twice in the US as an older mare.
Celtic Slipper 2007 went onto Group 3 success that year.
Future Triple Oaks winner Alexandrova (Epsom, Curragh & York 2006) was beaten into 3rd in 2005.
Geminiani won in 2002 before going on to land The Prestige Group 3 over course & distance.
Future Triple Listed winner Kootenay won in 2001.
Ameerat won in 2000 (Won 1000 Guineas Group 1 2001).
Midnight Line won in 1997 (Won Prestige & May Hill Group 3 1997, 3rd Vodafone Oaks Group 1 1998, Won Long Island Handicap Grade 2 1999) she beat on debut that day Alborada who finished 3rd (C.L Weld Stakes Group 3 1997, Pretty Polly Group 2, Nassau Stakes Group 2 1998 & she won back to back editions of Champion Stakes Group 1 1998 / 1999).   
    

Cassadene (Jeremy x Princess Atoosa) £30,000 Tatts 2012 as a foal, £18,359 as a Yearling, half sister to Group 3 placed Princess Sinead.
Fast Romance - not shown much in 2 starts so far, one for nurseries.
Hoorayforhollywood - run well on both starts so far but does look vulnerable to a decent newcomer.
Kodiva (Kodiac x Operissimo) £100,000 Oct Book 1 Tatts, half sister to a Group 3 placed filly. From the family of Sky Lantern (Classic winner), Blatant (Group 3), Songlark (Group 3), Shanty Star (Group 3), Arctic (Group 3) & Hinton Admiral (Listed).
Montalcino - Young apprentice ridden on debut & showed very little, will need more experience.
Nelsons Trick - encouraging debut at Kempton keeping on at the finish, entitled to improve but will probably need another run.
Perfect Orange (Sir Percy x La Peinture) Full sister to useful 3yo Extra Noble, likely to need to need this.
Runner Runner - improved markedly from debut to almost win on her 2nd start, vulnerable to a newcomer with potential in this.   
Shagah - disappointed both starts, form probably strong to get involved in this but maybe better once handicapped.
Sweet Dream (Oasis Dream x Sweet Stream) £155,000 Tatts Book 1 2013 bought back the resold for £80,000 at Craven Breeze Up sale 2014. Half sister to German St Leger winner Group 3 Tidespring. Dam a Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 & Listed winner at up to 1m6f.  
Thunder In Myheart - highly encouraging maiden run finishing 2nd on debut, has a Group 2 entry & is respected.
World Fair (Shamardal x Nashama) First foal; dam unplaced in France as a 3yo, half-sister to Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes winner Centennial & Listed Salsabil Stakes winner Siren's Song. From the family of Group 1 winners Croco Rouge, Taipan, Ali-Royal and Sleepytime 
   

   
@fttfracing

  


   








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