Thursday 11 September 2014

Doncaster St Leger Festival Day 3 Friday 12th September 2014

Hello & welcome to my blog for Day 3 of Doncaster's St Leger meeting featuring 4 pattern events & some top class handicaps. I am off up to Doncaster early Friday am & will also be staying over for Saturday's St Leger card. Now the decs are through for Friday I am even more pumped for the action as it looks a fantastic days racing from sprints to staying events, Doncaster has it all covered.
If your going to Doncaster on either Friday or Saturday then do say 'Hi' I will most likely be somewhere near the pre parade & paddock area. 


The card opens with the flying 2yo's over 5f which has attracted a 15 runner field;
Accepted is back over from Ireland after a reasonable run when 5th in The Gimcrack at York after refusing to settle. He will appreciate the return to 5f & enters calculations. 
Ahlan Emirati is a consistent 2yo who has now been placed in 4 Group races in a row, drop back to 5f is no trouble but there is a suspicion that there will always be 1 or 2 better than him at this level. 
Astrophysics takes a big step up from a maiden win & is best watched. 
Beacon has ability but plenty of attitude, he has blown his last 2 races & struggled over the 6f last time out. 
All the way Molecomb winner Cotai Glory bids to follow up here, he showed impressive speed that day & if he returns here in the same form they will all have him to beat. 



Fast Act chased down Cotai Glory almost all the way to the line at Goodwood but was then bitterly disappointing upped in trip in a big sales race at York last time, this drop back to 5f is more in his favour & is a player.
George Dryden won his maiden impressively at Pontefract before being readily outpointed by a filly who was 6th in a Group 3 last week, work to do back down in trip. Mind Of Madness was ridden to finish late at York last time & duly collared Moonraker late on to return the winners enclosure, he will do well to confirm that form here as Moonraker himself got no luck in running that day & granted a smoother passage can finish ahead of Mind Of Madness which may just see him playing a part. 
Mukhmal has failed to progress since a fine start to the season, his main issue is his reluctance to settle. I would forget his last run as 6f is not his trip but back at 5f in a decent sized field for a change he may be able to get a lead which allows him to settle & if that happens he could easily take a hand at the finish. 
Anippe has won both his starts in commanding fashion on debut & upped to Listed company on his first start for the big spending Qatar boys last time when he beat The Great War, big player.
Bronze Maquette has been held in high regard by his small stable for a long time & has finally produced the goods on the track winning his last 2 starts including an impressive win in The St Hugh's last time, a race that has produced the winner of this twice in the last 10 years. 



Sarista is a speedy filly has not been seen since an excellent 4th behind Hootenanny at The Royal Meeting, this race has been won 3 times in the last 10 years by fillies & there's every reason to believe she can get involved. 
She's A Worldie was outclassed in the Lowther last time & on her Nursery form has work to do. Tongue Twista made hard work of finally breaking her maiden at Brighton last time out & will need others to underperform to get involved here.

Not a race I fancy anything strongly in.





A most intriguing running of The Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes is up next over the extended 1m6f, a race in recent years that has been won by horses towards the top end of the weights (4 of the last 6 have carried 9-5 or more), with 3yo & 5yo's the dominate force in the last 10 years having 7 renewals between them.
Top weight this year is Godolphin's ex French inmate Tenenbaum who has not been seen since February in Dubai where he finished a very decent 6th beaten just under 4 lengths by Excellent Result. On the negative side his UK form last year was awful & he finished 62 lengths behind the winner in this race last year add to that Charlie Appleby's rarely win after a long break he is well left alone. 
Sueigoo has had a great season whatever happens here with a win in The Chester Cup & a 2nd in The Northumberland Plate already on the CV, he ran ok in the Ebor last time getting beaten less than 7 lengths but he did look one paced at the 14f trip & has to face that again here from a career high mark. 
Elidor as predicted ran a huge race in the Ebor & needs respecting at the same trip again here despite being raised a couple of lbs due to that effort. 



Retirement Plan is another Ebor runner trying his luck here, he also ran well from his new mark after being up there for most of the way he got outpaced as the race quickened as you would expect for a horse that had last won at 2 miles but despite receiving a bump he still stuck to his task, another to consider here. 
Shawaiman found the ground too quick at Goodwood last time when he fished last, he has plenty of ability but due to his odd campaign he has gained a mark that so far has appeared beyond him, as a result of that last run he has been dropped 4lbs & in reality given his size & scope he should be more than capable of mixing it off a mark of 100 so from so a stable that won this race 3 years ago he is interesting. 
Sir Walter Scott didn't run badly for one so inexperienced in The Ebor last time finishing behind Elidor & Retirement Plan in 7th, he was entitled to have still needed that run & having been dropped 1lb is entitled to get a bit closer here. 
Great Hall was a fancy of a few shrewdies for the Ebor but as he has done throughout his career so far he disappointed finishing last & he cannot be fancied here. 
Big Thunder has been disappointing so far this year but maybe he just could cope from his high marks, as a result of a couple of bad runs he is now only 1lb above his last winning mark which makes him worthy of note. 
Lahaag is another to have been a disappointment so far this season & even more so as they have been off lower marks than he last won from, it was deceptive how close he finished last time as it was a messy race in which you could have thrown a blanket over the first half dozen so I would not be rushing to the window on Friday to back him just yet. Stomachion never travelled or looked likely to get involved at York last time, he is a lightly framed individual & may yet do better for another winter on his back. He looks a stayer on his run style but again he comes from that same race at York in which Lahaag finished just in behind him & I suspect the form is mixed. 
Pearl Castle is another form that York race & similar comments apply to him as they do to Stomachion & Lahaag. Buckland benefited from a superb ride by Adrie De Vries last time in The Shergar Cup as he set slow fractions before gradually quickening up on the home turn leaving his mount enough energy to hold on for 2nd, it was his best run for an age & it would be unwise to believe that feat can be repeated in this much better race. Adventure Seeker is a 3yo who really raised his game in The Melrose last time going down by less than half a length, he has the physical presence to cope against his elders & is a player with the 3yo allowance. 



Swivel another 3yo just doesn't look good enough in this grade while the final 3yo is Farquhar who will appreciate the step up in distance but may struggle with the class of race. 

Good handicap but I will not be getting involved.  
  



The feature on Day 3 is the 2m2f Doncaster Cup this year sponsored by an E-Cigarette company which is a interesting sponsorship deal to have procured. 
We have strong stats for this race as 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out & 8 of the last 10 winners ran in York's Lonsdale Cup before winning here. 

 Angel Gabrial was 5th at York as he had been at Goodwood & remains below the class needed for a staying Group race. 



Battle Of Marengo (seen below in happier times with Ballydoyle) is a strange addition to staying ranks as he barely gets 12f let alone 18f. 



Biographer tries a staying Group race once more after so many poor runs over the last 23 months however there is a case for saying that his last run at Goodwood was ok finishing just in behind some very promising 3yo's who are all heading to the St Leger, ground is key as he would want no faster than good. He wasn't beaten all that far in 4th last year. 



Brass Ring (seen finishing 3rd in Queen Alexandra) will appreciate the step up from 2 miles here as he was readily outpointed at Goodwood last time. 



Clever Cookie tries his hand at pattern level on the flat over a trip he has won at over hurdles, he was a good 6th last time in the Ebor but he surely must be feeling it after being on the go since November last year over jumps. 



Kalann is an 80 rated handicapper on the flat & a 144 rated hurdler in his prime yet that seems some time ago. 



Repeater is just not a horse I would trust with my money, he has been 3rd & 4th in the last 2 renewals of this race. 



Times Up has won the last 2 runnings of this race & it's safe to say that his season has been geared around a hat trick attempt, that bid looks to be in safe hands after a cracking 3rd place in The Lonsdale at York & he should be hard to beat here. 



Very Good Day (seen below in his days with Mick Channon) has not been since a down the field finish from a bad draw in last season's Chester Cup previous to that in 2012 he had been an improving young stayer. Big effort required here on a return from a 492 day absence. 



Whiplash Willie finally got a run after so many missed engagements due to fast summer ground at Chester last time but was readily outpointed by an improving 3yo in Big Orange, he will appreciate the step back up in trip here but again would prefer softer ground. 



Alwilda was last at Goodwood behind some useful opponents which does not bode well for her assignment here even if the step up in trip does suit.  



Estimate goes back up in trip for the first time since her narrow defeat when trying to defend her Gold Cup crown in June, whatever ailments were plaguing here at Goodwood were blown away by a cracking effort when just going down to a primed Pale Mimosa in The Lonsdale at York, she had Times Up behind that day & attempts to keep him at bay as she bids to return to winning ways here.                  



A cracking staying event in which Times Up 4/1 BetVictor / William Hill is taken to win it for a 3rd year in succession.





The May Hill has some strong trends over the last few years with 5 of the last 10 winners having previously Won The Sweet Solera at Newmarket & 9 of the last 10 winners had won their previous start. 
Agnes Stewart comes over from Ireland after a 2nd place finish in The Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes last time, she was held in rear that day but seemed to be out speeded by the 14/1 winner (Jack Naylor) who has since won again in Listed company, entitled to respect. 
Alonsoa was 4th in The Sweet Solera but that fails to tell the whole story, she had previously been unbeaten going into the race after easy wins at Newbury & Sandown on fast ground, at Newmarket the night before it rained heavily the night before & turned the ground soft so being by Raven's Pass as a fluent moving filly she was never likely to be suited by that much give & in the end did well to get as close as she did. Step up in trip will suit her here as will this better ground & I fully expect her to get back to winning ways. 



Astrelle ran well upped to Group 3 company last time but this is a much better race & she is not up to it. 
Banzari has just a fast finishing 2nd in a weak looking Salisbury maiden to her name (winner was returned 66/1), she has no real fancy entries & it would be a special performance to see her involved here. 
Bonnie Grey was a decent 2nd at Goodwood finishing ahead of Astrelle last time but has been well beaten by Alonsoa previously & I can see no reason why that should be turned around here. 
Muraaqaba made almost all the running on the soft ground in The Sweet Solera last time which in the context of this race according to the stats gives her a huge chance, she is entitled to still be improving & should be ok on the better ground but will she be as far ahead as Alonsoa this time around given the change in ground?



Shagah was easily brushed aside in a 4 runner race at Ascot on Saturday & I cannot see her getting involved here. Supreme Occasion ran well last time but was beaten in a handicap that day & faces a better class of opponent here.

Am a fan of Alonsoa 11/2 William Hill & back on better ground she can get back to winning ways. 





Handicappers return to the fray after a trio of Group races at the start of the card in the form of an extended 6f handicap. Shropshire heads the weights, he wasn't beaten far on his seasonal return in the Great St Wilfrid & was 4th in this last year from a similar mark. Danzeno returns to a handicap after a win in a Group 3 at Newcastle last time, he had been due to run at Haydock in The Sprint Cup at the weekend but was pulled out. Highly regarded & should be capable from this mark but are there better handicapped horses facing him here? Alejandro has had an excellent season but as a result is now on a career high mark which is enough to hold him here. 
Poole Harbour has only had the one start since changing stables to Dandy Nicholls, he has been capable from slightly lower marks so has some sort of chance if he can show more than on his return recently. Bogart tries an extended 6f for only the 2nd time in his career & it has to be doubtful that he will last. Hitchens is a shadow of former days & is best watched. Whozthecat has struggled since July last year when he won a quality 5f handicap at The Curragh, his young jockey's claim has been off no help in recent starts. Sir Reginald is a character but one with plenty of ability as he showed when just getting up on the line to land quite a punt for me last year, he returns from a very similar mark this time around carrying 1lb less on his back & from a rating of 92 rather than 91, all looks set fair for a big attempt at winning this race once more. 
Royal Rascal has been given a chance by the handicapper after a couple of below par efforts, she is now a couple of lbs below her mark when she was a close 2nd to Almargo in June, player. Yeeoow has been disappointing this season one of the few from his stable that have, he has been dropped onto a decent mark taking into account his young jockey's claim but firstly you would want to see more & secondly he has yet to win further than 6f. Badr Al Badoor only just failed over 7f here last time & is still competitively weighted to keep in the mix. Doc Hay finally came back to winning ways in a claimer the time before last but will need more here after a down the field run in a handicap yesterday. 
Huntsmans Close is running himself in to form but this is a slightly better grade over an extended 6f than he is used to, softer ground would also be more in his favour.

Sir Reginald 15/2 BetVictor / Paddy Power is worth backing again to double up in this race with so much in his favour.





Staying 2yo's step into the limelight at 4:25 with the Flying Scotsman Stakes named after the world famous locomotive that was built in Doncaster & still pulls enthusiasts up the same East Coast main line track to this day. Last year's winner was the promising Godolphin 2yo Be Ready who's career was unfortunately cut short by injury & he is now enjoying his days in the paddocks at Dalham Hall Stud.
Nafaqa duly obliged in maiden company after an excellent first effort finishing 4th in The Chesham at Royal Ascot, I am looking forward to seeing this colt in the flesh. He should be well capable of winning in this grade & sets a good standard for the others to aim at. 



Carry On Deryck ran in The Washington Singer last time when last of the 4 runners, he needs more in the same grade here. 
Peacock was a well beaten 5th of 6th in Ascot's Winkfield Stakes last time out & needs a step forward here to be getting involved. 
Sea Wolf is a nice type who has the most experience in this field, he won his maiden at Doncaster over 5f back in April & went on to acquit himself well in novice & handicap company, he regained winning ways when making all to defeat the useful filly Peace And War last time, this is tougher & he is likely to struggle. 
Toocoolforschool is a beast of an animal who used his long stride to great effect when almost making all to nearly cause a shock in The Acomb last time out, that form looks suspect overall & he will need to improve again here but that is entirely possible given his size so he should not be underestimated. 
White Lake did well to overcome greenness to win well on debut at York beliing his starting price of 25/1, he is a rarity in 2yo runners from his stable as a winner on debut which bodes well for his future, on the downside he holds no fancy entries which suggests that he had shown very little at home. He has a useful if unspectacular pedigree being related to 7 individual winners 2 of which won at Listed level (Ice Palace & Portal). Well worth a go in this grade after his maiden win but will need to improve again.
Risen Sun won a much weaker maiden over 6f on slightly softer ground at Hamilton but was clearly expected to given her position in the market. In the race itself she travelled like a very good horse before pulling clear to win going away. She like White Lake holds no fancy entries which is a negative. So far her half siblings have failed to set the world alight & she is the first winner that the dam Bright Morning has produced, her 3 half siblings have raced just 5 times between them with only half brother Light Show (by Tiger Hill) earning a rating albeit a lowly 60 on his last start in Jebel Ali in 2012, Winter Sun her Cape Cross half sister never ran & was sold for just £4,000 at Tatts in February last year while her half brother Balad (by Exceed And Excel) died as a 3yo after just one run when finishing last to Music Master in The Alex Scott Maiden back in 2013. What does this mean? Well for me it shows that the dam has so far produced nothing of note until now, her offspring are weak & prone to injury which does not bode well for Risen Sun. Of course she could be the one exception & the best horse that her mother produces after all Breeding is not an exact science but for me I would rather watch her than get involved. 

A race to watch for me.



The last race on Friday at Doncaster is a tight looking classified stakes featuring some horses that have flattered to deceive so far this season such as Enobled, Innsbruck, Arable, Raise Your Gaze, Raven Ridge & Zee Zeely. They all should have achieved more this season & for whatever reason have not hence why they are in 0-85 Classified stakes. Its not a race I will be looking at or getting involved with.



@fttfracing


      

            




                      




          

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