Hello & welcome along to my latest blog, thanks to all my readers who have been enjoying my #MelbourneCup ante post special that I published earlier in the week the feedback has been great so far, its still available via this link http://fourtothefloorracing.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/melbourne-cup-2014-early-look.html & I will be adding to it over the coming weeks in the build up to the big race in November.
Back to racing in this country & an interesting potentially difficult Saturday on the horizon with the runnings of The Ayr Gold & Silver Cups up in Scotland,plus some decent Group & handicap action from Newbury where I will be in attendance.
The focus for me is first on Newbury as it's where i'm off racing on Saturday, there are two extremely interesting divisions of what can be an informative 7f maiden, one starting the card & the other squeezed in before the last race mixed in with 3 Group races & one very good handicap. Lets start with the Legacy Cup Group 3 which used to be known as The Arc Trial but due to its extremely limited impact on the big race in Paris in just 2 weeks time it has been renamed.
So far in the race's short history there have been 2 dual winners so that bodes well for last year's winner Camborne who is back to defend his crown, last time around he was in much better form than he is now after 4 extremely lacklustre runs so far this season, hard to fancy. Ground has come for him.
Cubanita started off her season with a win in The John Porter back in April over the course & just shy of this distance, she too has been disappointing since but on the plus side she is a much better filly at this time of year so is respected with ground now in her favour.
Glorious Protector is a lightly raced improving 4yo who won in Listed company nicely at
Windsor last time, very much one to keep on the right side of.
Grandeur has been on his travels since a decent early AW campaign, he has been placed on his last 3 starts in the US, not sure this trip is what he wants in this country & probably up against it here (recent rain will not be in his favour).
Hillstar has been consistent in finishing 2nd in decent races but has looked more than awkward on his last couple with an ungainly head carriage & just looking extremely one paced at Haydock last time. Step up will help but I would have preferred further than 1m3f. Has some of the best form in the book so if it all clicked he could win this easily.
Nautilus won a top handicap over 1m6f showing plenty of stamina last time out, he has improved no end in the last year & faces his biggest test to date but he couldn't be coming into in better heart, unwise to dismiss.
Quest For Peace was easily beaten last time by Glorious Protector so has an awful lot to find to turn that form around. Beacon Lady tries pattern company for the 3rd time this season after gaining another win at her beloved Epsom, she will find this much easier than her last 2 attempts at pattern company but still overall has plenty to find.
Tasaday holds outstanding claims after running so well in The Yorkshire Oaks last time before her stamina faded, dropping back a furlong will help here & she must go well as she is proven on ground with cut in it.
Not a bad little race, if Tasaday was available around 4/1 then I may well have a bet.
The big race on Newbury's card is for 2yo's over 6f, the Mill Reef Stakes overall has been won by some just ok animals in recent years but this year seems to have attracted a quality field of unexposed & genuine pattern performers.
Baithe Alga was bitterly disappointing last time out after a break dropping away tamely, he has a 3lb penalty to carry again once more here & as I said last time the worry is that others have caught up with him.
Growl never got involved as so many didn't in The Acomb at York last time so is worth another chance in pattern company despite overall giving me the impression that he is next year's horse.
Jungle Cat is very much a 2yo & a pretty decent one having finished in the first 3 places on all 6 of his starts including close up placings in a Gimcrack (see pic), Richmond, July Stakes & a Coventry. This represents to me anyway his best chance of a deserved Group race victory & like 3 other winners in the last 10 years this will be his 7th racecourse start. Has enough experience to cope with anymore rain that may fall in the next 24 hours.
Kibaar tries pattern company for the first time on his 9th career start & although he is useful he will be hard pressed to get involved in the finish here.
(see finishing an unlucky 2nd to Escalating at Ascot).
Limato has a big reputation & is unbeaten in 3 starts so far 2 on the AW beating Hawkesbury & Bronze Maquette. He then came to a fairly uncompetitive Listed race over course & distance where he won nicely once more beating the wayward Cotai Glory (since destroyed a Molecomb field & looked set to have done the same at Doncaster last week before jinking badly close home which made the saddle slip giving his jockey no hope). Undoubtedly talented but this is a proper test here & he may well meet his match here, ground should be fine being a son of Tagula.
Mubtaghaa duly repaid his trainers faith in him with a big win in a sales race at York on his last start, had previously been well beaten behind Jungle Cat at Newmarket so even allowing for improvement he has work to do here. Any more rain will not hinder him having won his maiden on soft.
Strath Burn won impressively on debut at Newbury & was not unbacked, he then went
straight into Group 2 company over in France finishing a close up 2nd to the useful Kool Kompany in a Group 2 next time, Kool Kompany has since been 2nd in a Group 1 & then disappointed in a sales race (since been sold rather rapidly), entitled to improve again.
Toocoolforschool ran a cracker in a Listed race at Doncaster last week over 7f following up his good run over 7f at York in Group 3 company, is quite a long lean horse so I wouldn't be keen on the drop back in trip for him. Although the recent rain will make this more of a stamina test.
Quite like Jungle Cat 4/1 generally available or bigger if available the forecast prices to gain a deserved Group success.
Newbury's big handicap of the day is seen as a trial for the Cambridgeshire the following weekend, it has some strong trends in the last 10 years namely; Luca Cumani has trained 4 winners in the last 10 years. 4yo & 3yo's have dominated over the last 10 years. It's also not a tremendous race for favourites with 3 winning since 1990 (only 2 of those were outright favourites).
Energia Davos took advantage of a reduced handicap mark & a race that rather fell apart at Haydock to win last time, he will need more here from top weight.
Queensbury Rules finally won a race last time after being touted so many times over the last few years, whether he can do it again of a higher mark remains to be seen.
Regulation is dropping down the handicap & getting closer to a reasonable mark that saw him win from, he ran well enough in the early part of the year in Dubai where he got little luck so not a forlorn hope.
Hit The Jackpot has generally struggled since cashing in from much lower marks earlier on in the season. Roseburg is the representative from Luca Cumani this year, he rose dramatically in the weights winning 3 on the spin earlier in the year, appeared held last time at Newbury against his own age group but well worth a go here against his elders in a race that will be run to suit. Nicholascopernicus has been relatively disappointing considering how progressive he looked last year & all his winning form is with plenty of give so would need the heavens to open for the next 24 hours which they have done.
Stepping Ahead is another likely to struggle from this mark in this grade.
Border Legend has been in good form on his last few starts but looks held by the handicapper now especially in this better grade.
Spirit Of The Law has been running well recently, he was due to run at Ayr on Thursday but turns up here instead, vulnerable to a more progressive animal.
First Flight was a disappointment last time but then his stable were slightly towards the end of August & he may not have enjoyed Goodwood, previously he had won really well over this trip at Newmarket, worth another try to see if he can cope with his new mark. Has some decent form on ground with cut in it.
Running Deer has been a fabulous servant to her connections this season, this is her 8th run of the campaign for which she has won twice & been placed on 3 occasions, she ran well again finishing 5th in a similar race at Sandown last time out so no reason why she cannot be in their pitching once more especially with recent rain in her favour.
Busatto is massively out of form even for a Mark Johnston animal & it would be a big surprise were he to bounce back here.
Monsieur Chevalier has no designs on staying this trip & is out of his depth.
Black Shadow showed up better at Goodwood last time than he had the time before, he has a small chance.
Madeed has some top handicap form in the book with 3 places on his last 3 starts, at Haydock last time he looked as though he wasn't truly concentrating while at Goodwood the time before he travelled sweetly before getting stuck in traffic & by the time he got out the race had gone. Blinkers first time look a good decision & has to go well.
Air Pilot has not been seen often but what we have seen suggests he is an extremely well handicapped horse, he followed up his maiden win with a close up 2nd to Farrajj at Epsom on Derby weekend & he has not been seen since due to the fast summer ground so the rain that Newbury received on Thursday & through the day on Friday will be music to his trainers ears.
Arab Dawn rattled up an early season hat trick before running well from his new mark behind Elite Army at Ascot, after a mid season break he returned at Doncaster last week with another decent effort behind the improving The Corsican, will strip fitter here & entitled to get involved.
Ventura Quest has plenty to do in this grade & would not be for me.
Am willing to forgive First Flight 14/1 E/W Racebets one bad run last time on a track that may not have suited.
The final Group race on Newbury's card is the 5f Dubai Airport World Trophy, 13 decent sprinters take their chance. Take Cover heads them after a disappointing effort in The at York, will set the race up here & has to be opposed under a penalty. Ajjaadd tries his hand in Group company at the age of 8, he wouldn't be improving at that age so in reality should struggle but he has some top handicap form in his back form & should have gained confidence from his win last time.
Dinkum Diamond is useful but has never really shown he is up to this grade.
Justineo is a speedy horse who struggles in pattern company overall, this is his best trip & has to worry about Take Cover for the lead.
Ladies Are Forever is a very useful filly in this kind of grade, she has remained in grand form this season & is not without a chance in a race which fillies do well in.
Moviesta ran a barn storming race in the Nunthorpe on his penultimate start, last time out he didn't get involved over 6f behind G Force, in top company its a trip that stretches him. He looks to have so much in his favour on Saturday with pace to aim although recent rain is my necessarily in his favour.
Scream Blue Murder gained a first pattern win when surprising a few at The Curragh earlier in the year, has been running ok recently & the recent rain is in her favour.
Justice Day is a grand little horse who has given his connections plenty of fun, these group class sprints do just find him out though.
Graphic Guest, Hay Chewed & One Chance have work to do on all running so far this term but you couldn't discount entirely as there have been a couple of big priced winners in recent years, of those 3 perhaps One Chance could run better than her likely odds would suggest.
Mecca's Angel showed her run in France to be all wrong when bolting up in The Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster last week, she remains with a massive amount of potential & must go very well again here with the recent rain a plus.
Online Alexander has 4 lengths to fins with Mecca's Angel on last week's running when she surprisingly missed the break, worth another go at a black type race after winning her previous 2 starts.
Looks between Mecca's Angel & Moviesta, i can't split them so will leave it alone.
Up at Ayr are two of the most competitive sprints run all year in the Silver & Gold Cups; I'll start with the SIlver Cup, Richard Fahey has trained 2 winners in the last 10 years & 7 out of the last 10 winners have started at double figure odds. Drawn is pretty even between high & low.
Telmeyd just missed the cut for the big one & as a result sits on top weight, would be some effort from a 3yo to win under that burden.
Santefisio drops back to sprinting for the first time since finishing a good 3rd at Pontefract on a good race last year, not a ridiculous shout that this decent handicapper could enjoy this & a frame contender. Similar comments apply to Redvers who looked all over the winner everywhere bar the line at Ascot 2 weeks ago, should have the pace for this & a player. Compton Park has done well since returning to this country from Spain this season, came unstuck from his new mark in the Portland last week but can be forgiven that & 2 winner sin the last 10 years have come from the Portland.
Majestic Moon ran a excellent race at Goodwood last time over 7f, he never got involved in The Great St Wilfrid the time before & is worth another try at 6f from a good draw. Foxtrot Romeo is likely to be well found in the market after another good effort at Wolverhampton last time in a hot race, he got going late on & was an eye catcher at the end, player. You would assume Newstead Abbey has been laid out for one of these Cup races as he has not been seen since June, has some good form in the book & could easily play a part. Hitchens ran a decent race at Doncaster last week from this mark, on his best form he would pick up these lot & carry them but he is 9 now so its unlikely he will figure. Bogart is on a hugely attractive mark judging by last week's effort in the Portland & must be considered. Lexi's Hero was formerly a decent sprinter, took advantage of a lower mark a few starts back at Chester but will struggle here.
Sir Reginald ran no sort of race in a race at Doncaster that he won last year, mark keeps dropping as a result & has a top claimer on board, not beyond the realms of possibility if he's on a going day. Tatlisu deserves a decent pot after a string of good efforts in these big sprints throughout the summer. Inxile has been a tremendous sprinter over the years & managed to win a few starts ago from a 3lb lower mark, this tougher as a 9yo like Hitchens & others look better. Yeeoow hasn't looked in the same form for a while now & is best watched. Ansaab has plenty to do on what we have seen this year.
Mission Approved got stuck in a pocket last week at Doncaster & is better than his finishing position, will need luck once more here but looks well weighted.
Farlow would have won the Bronze Cup last season had he been drawn on the Stands side, one of these cups would have been his target all season & a big run can be expected. Cosmic Chatter was useful in the early stages of his 2yo career but has shown very little ever since. Trojan Rocket is much better on the AW & will struggle here. Green Howard is on a hat trick going into this race dropping back to 6f, he was a close up 2nd in The Bronze Cup last season & is now racing of a mark of 100 in this better race. Angus Og has been found out on his last 2 starts & would prefer softer ground.
Mehdi hasn't been beaten all that far on his 2 starts this season, the pace of this race will likely suit better & is not without hope.
Huntsman's Close has been running quite consistently for him since joining Roger Charlton appeared not to quite get home after being hampered at Doncaster last week & has a chance. Arctic Feeling should remain competitive with the claim of young Sammy Jo Bell, he has found his form on his last 4 starts including when a cracking 4th in Ireland last weekend. Mezzotint remains well handicapped but also remains an enigma, he looked to have every chance at Chester last week but failed to get home, dropping back in a big field will help here but comes with risks. Repetition has plenty on in this company while Lexington Abbey could love the way this race is run & looks an interesting runner.
Too tough for me to get involved.
The Gold Cup itself is a fantastic race this year featuring some old favourites & plenty of new blood in the handicap sprint ranks.
8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 while Dandy Nicholls & Kevin Ryan have won 6 renewals between them in the last 10 years. High numbers have had an advantage in recent years with 6 winners in the last 10, the average weight that the winner has carried is from 8-13 to 9-2.
Jack Dexter is lumbered with top weight as he was last year when an excellent 3rd, there was cut in the ground last year which is what he needs & his form so far this year has been poor.
Alben Star keeps threatening to win a big one but as a result is pretty high in the handicap & even with his young jockeys claim there are plenty of horses who look better treated.
Hamza is the pace angle for the low horses, he started the year with an all the way win in a Group 3 at newmarket but it has a season of gradual regression since, he has run with more substance of his last 2 starts in Ireland but it is some ask to make all the running here.
Mass Rally is on a similar mark to when finishing 11th last year in this, his form this year has been average. Plenty to do despite being a previous winner of a Ayr Silver Cup. Heaven's Guest has been in pretty good form since popping up in The Bunbury Cup in the summer, drop back to 6f will be fine for him as he was a strong finishing 4th last year as a 3yo, the talented young Sammy Jo Bell takes 5lb off his back which aides his chances but I am sure that connections would have preferred more rain for him to be at his best.
Blaine was handicapped to go close last time & duly did under an excellent ride from Amy Ryan, this is a stiff 6f here at Ayr & he has always struck me as a an out & out speedster which is a negative in this contest.
Louis The Pious has gone back into hiding ever since his surprise win at Royal Ascot back in the summer, has plenty to do from this mark despite being 2nd last year.
An Saighdiur has been 3rd in the last 2 runnings of the Silver Cup off lower marks, he hasn't improved so far this year & usually runs his best races with plenty of cut in the ground (one of the pace angles for the high drawn animals).
Ruwaiyan has run deplorably on his last 2 starts including just 6 days ago in a Listed event in Sweden, not the most orthodox preparation for a race such as this. On his 4th in The Stewards he does however have a chance if he can recapture his best form.
Eastern Impact bids to become the first 3yo since Funfair Wane (2002) to win & only the 3rd since Daring Destiny in 1994. He has improved throughout the season in good 3yo handicaps winning 2 at Newmarket but is plenty high enough as a result & may find this a year too soon.
Ashpan Sam has been struggling on his last few starts with his new handicap mark but ran better at York last time over 5f, not enough for me to suggest he can get involved however (another low drawn pace angle).
Watchable was in my thinking for an Ayr Gold Cup & then he went at won at The Curragh last Sunday which is not ideal, the 5lb rise is no hardship as he has the potential to make it at Group level but whether he can win another top big field sprint just 6 days later is an issue.
Jimmy Styles won this back in 2009 but is not the same horse anymore & at the age of 10 has plenty on his plate.
Minalisa has not been seen since winning a Listed event at Naas in July, she has hardly any experience of big field handicaps as her career has mainly been spent in small field conditions or stakes races, work to do from this mark.
Rene Mathis has a real Ayr Gold Cup winners vibe about him, extremely progressive this term winning well at Newmarket in a decent 6f handicap from a mark of 89, ran at Royal Ascot albeit down the field, finished a good 3rd to one of the best handicap sprinters around in Muthmir & then won a soft ground 7f handicap, stamina for 7f is prudent in an Ayr Gold Cup as the stats have proved over the year (9 of the last 10 winners had won or run well at 7f previously). He can be forgiven his run last Saturday at Leopardstown as he was in a heap of trouble from an early stage, his middling drawn means he can go anywhere (personally I hope David Allan goes high) & I fully expect a very decent run from him here.
Racy has surely had his win for this season & is most unreliable in any case. Hawkeyethenoo perhaps surprisingly for him has never run well in both his attempts at an Ayr Gold Cup, he is not getting any younger & has been struggling for awhile now.
York Glory is bang out of form this season & can only be watched at present.
Go Far's winning run came to an end in The Portland last weekend but in truth he was far from disgraced as he saw very little luck in running & was finished well at the end, not out of this.
Captain Ramius is a former winner (2012) from a 2lb lower mark than he sits on here, his form however has been regressive & he has shown nothing since a 2nd at Doncaster at the start of last season. Softer ground would be more his bag.
Burn The Boats comes over from Ger Lyons stable in Ireland, he was favourite to win last week at Leopardstown but was 2 places behind Rene Mathis & never fired. He has limited experience at 6f & is plenty short enough from what I can see.
Ballesteros is a conundrum...he has bags of ability but rarely consents to show it, 5f on soft ground is more his bag though & the worry is will his stamina last over a stiff 6f.
Duke Of Firenze has had limited opportunities to show what he can do for new trainer Robert Cowell this season, his last run in a conditions event told us nothing really & he returns to Ayr off a 4lb lower mark than when finishing 21st last season. Has still to prove that 6f in top company really suits.
Barnet Fair struggled from his new mark at Haydock last time & a similar fate is likely here despite showing himself in good form since joining Dandy Nicholls stable, just lasted the 6f at Goodwood the time before & will struggle over this stiffer 6f here. Fast Shot has struggled from this mark on his last 3 starts with Rachel Richardson's claim so I cannot see any reason why that should change here.
Supplicant wasn't beaten far on his big handicap sprint debut at Ripon last time from a 2lb higher mark, that was a blanket finish at Ripon so I would be unsure of the form overall, so far this season he has really struggled looking at times as if he hadn't fully trained on. As a 3yo he has work to do anyway & while I could see him running ok finishing say 6th or 7th a win is asking too much on the plus side he did win the Mill Reef at Newbury on this day last year. The other 3yo in the line up is the progressive Highland Acclaim who was given a peach of a ride by Richard Hughes to get up in the shadow of the post on Shergar Cup day, he wasn't beaten far next time at the Berkshire venue in a good 7f behind Safety Check & out of the three 3yo's he would be the one I would expect to do best.
Do quite fancy Rene Mathis 22/1 E/W Coral / BetVictor to take this out.
@fttfracing
Back to racing in this country & an interesting potentially difficult Saturday on the horizon with the runnings of The Ayr Gold & Silver Cups up in Scotland,plus some decent Group & handicap action from Newbury where I will be in attendance.
The focus for me is first on Newbury as it's where i'm off racing on Saturday, there are two extremely interesting divisions of what can be an informative 7f maiden, one starting the card & the other squeezed in before the last race mixed in with 3 Group races & one very good handicap. Lets start with the Legacy Cup Group 3 which used to be known as The Arc Trial but due to its extremely limited impact on the big race in Paris in just 2 weeks time it has been renamed.
So far in the race's short history there have been 2 dual winners so that bodes well for last year's winner Camborne who is back to defend his crown, last time around he was in much better form than he is now after 4 extremely lacklustre runs so far this season, hard to fancy. Ground has come for him.
Cubanita started off her season with a win in The John Porter back in April over the course & just shy of this distance, she too has been disappointing since but on the plus side she is a much better filly at this time of year so is respected with ground now in her favour.
Glorious Protector is a lightly raced improving 4yo who won in Listed company nicely at
Windsor last time, very much one to keep on the right side of.
Hillstar has been consistent in finishing 2nd in decent races but has looked more than awkward on his last couple with an ungainly head carriage & just looking extremely one paced at Haydock last time. Step up will help but I would have preferred further than 1m3f. Has some of the best form in the book so if it all clicked he could win this easily.
Quest For Peace was easily beaten last time by Glorious Protector so has an awful lot to find to turn that form around. Beacon Lady tries pattern company for the 3rd time this season after gaining another win at her beloved Epsom, she will find this much easier than her last 2 attempts at pattern company but still overall has plenty to find.
Tasaday holds outstanding claims after running so well in The Yorkshire Oaks last time before her stamina faded, dropping back a furlong will help here & she must go well as she is proven on ground with cut in it.
Not a bad little race, if Tasaday was available around 4/1 then I may well have a bet.
The big race on Newbury's card is for 2yo's over 6f, the Mill Reef Stakes overall has been won by some just ok animals in recent years but this year seems to have attracted a quality field of unexposed & genuine pattern performers.
Baithe Alga was bitterly disappointing last time out after a break dropping away tamely, he has a 3lb penalty to carry again once more here & as I said last time the worry is that others have caught up with him.
Growl never got involved as so many didn't in The Acomb at York last time so is worth another chance in pattern company despite overall giving me the impression that he is next year's horse.
Jungle Cat is very much a 2yo & a pretty decent one having finished in the first 3 places on all 6 of his starts including close up placings in a Gimcrack (see pic), Richmond, July Stakes & a Coventry. This represents to me anyway his best chance of a deserved Group race victory & like 3 other winners in the last 10 years this will be his 7th racecourse start. Has enough experience to cope with anymore rain that may fall in the next 24 hours.
Kibaar tries pattern company for the first time on his 9th career start & although he is useful he will be hard pressed to get involved in the finish here.
(see finishing an unlucky 2nd to Escalating at Ascot).
Limato has a big reputation & is unbeaten in 3 starts so far 2 on the AW beating Hawkesbury & Bronze Maquette. He then came to a fairly uncompetitive Listed race over course & distance where he won nicely once more beating the wayward Cotai Glory (since destroyed a Molecomb field & looked set to have done the same at Doncaster last week before jinking badly close home which made the saddle slip giving his jockey no hope). Undoubtedly talented but this is a proper test here & he may well meet his match here, ground should be fine being a son of Tagula.
Strath Burn won impressively on debut at Newbury & was not unbacked, he then went
straight into Group 2 company over in France finishing a close up 2nd to the useful Kool Kompany in a Group 2 next time, Kool Kompany has since been 2nd in a Group 1 & then disappointed in a sales race (since been sold rather rapidly), entitled to improve again.
Toocoolforschool ran a cracker in a Listed race at Doncaster last week over 7f following up his good run over 7f at York in Group 3 company, is quite a long lean horse so I wouldn't be keen on the drop back in trip for him. Although the recent rain will make this more of a stamina test.
Quite like Jungle Cat 4/1 generally available or bigger if available the forecast prices to gain a deserved Group success.
Newbury's big handicap of the day is seen as a trial for the Cambridgeshire the following weekend, it has some strong trends in the last 10 years namely; Luca Cumani has trained 4 winners in the last 10 years. 4yo & 3yo's have dominated over the last 10 years. It's also not a tremendous race for favourites with 3 winning since 1990 (only 2 of those were outright favourites).
Energia Davos took advantage of a reduced handicap mark & a race that rather fell apart at Haydock to win last time, he will need more here from top weight.
Regulation is dropping down the handicap & getting closer to a reasonable mark that saw him win from, he ran well enough in the early part of the year in Dubai where he got little luck so not a forlorn hope.
Hit The Jackpot has generally struggled since cashing in from much lower marks earlier on in the season. Roseburg is the representative from Luca Cumani this year, he rose dramatically in the weights winning 3 on the spin earlier in the year, appeared held last time at Newbury against his own age group but well worth a go here against his elders in a race that will be run to suit. Nicholascopernicus has been relatively disappointing considering how progressive he looked last year & all his winning form is with plenty of give so would need the heavens to open for the next 24 hours which they have done.
Stepping Ahead is another likely to struggle from this mark in this grade.
Border Legend has been in good form on his last few starts but looks held by the handicapper now especially in this better grade.
Spirit Of The Law has been running well recently, he was due to run at Ayr on Thursday but turns up here instead, vulnerable to a more progressive animal.
First Flight was a disappointment last time but then his stable were slightly towards the end of August & he may not have enjoyed Goodwood, previously he had won really well over this trip at Newmarket, worth another try to see if he can cope with his new mark. Has some decent form on ground with cut in it.
Running Deer has been a fabulous servant to her connections this season, this is her 8th run of the campaign for which she has won twice & been placed on 3 occasions, she ran well again finishing 5th in a similar race at Sandown last time out so no reason why she cannot be in their pitching once more especially with recent rain in her favour.
Busatto is massively out of form even for a Mark Johnston animal & it would be a big surprise were he to bounce back here.
Monsieur Chevalier has no designs on staying this trip & is out of his depth.
Black Shadow showed up better at Goodwood last time than he had the time before, he has a small chance.
Madeed has some top handicap form in the book with 3 places on his last 3 starts, at Haydock last time he looked as though he wasn't truly concentrating while at Goodwood the time before he travelled sweetly before getting stuck in traffic & by the time he got out the race had gone. Blinkers first time look a good decision & has to go well.
Air Pilot has not been seen often but what we have seen suggests he is an extremely well handicapped horse, he followed up his maiden win with a close up 2nd to Farrajj at Epsom on Derby weekend & he has not been seen since due to the fast summer ground so the rain that Newbury received on Thursday & through the day on Friday will be music to his trainers ears.
Arab Dawn rattled up an early season hat trick before running well from his new mark behind Elite Army at Ascot, after a mid season break he returned at Doncaster last week with another decent effort behind the improving The Corsican, will strip fitter here & entitled to get involved.
Ventura Quest has plenty to do in this grade & would not be for me.
Am willing to forgive First Flight 14/1 E/W Racebets one bad run last time on a track that may not have suited.
The final Group race on Newbury's card is the 5f Dubai Airport World Trophy, 13 decent sprinters take their chance. Take Cover heads them after a disappointing effort in The at York, will set the race up here & has to be opposed under a penalty. Ajjaadd tries his hand in Group company at the age of 8, he wouldn't be improving at that age so in reality should struggle but he has some top handicap form in his back form & should have gained confidence from his win last time.
Dinkum Diamond is useful but has never really shown he is up to this grade.
Ladies Are Forever is a very useful filly in this kind of grade, she has remained in grand form this season & is not without a chance in a race which fillies do well in.
Moviesta ran a barn storming race in the Nunthorpe on his penultimate start, last time out he didn't get involved over 6f behind G Force, in top company its a trip that stretches him. He looks to have so much in his favour on Saturday with pace to aim although recent rain is my necessarily in his favour.
Scream Blue Murder gained a first pattern win when surprising a few at The Curragh earlier in the year, has been running ok recently & the recent rain is in her favour.
Justice Day is a grand little horse who has given his connections plenty of fun, these group class sprints do just find him out though.
Graphic Guest, Hay Chewed & One Chance have work to do on all running so far this term but you couldn't discount entirely as there have been a couple of big priced winners in recent years, of those 3 perhaps One Chance could run better than her likely odds would suggest.
Mecca's Angel showed her run in France to be all wrong when bolting up in The Scarborough Stakes at Doncaster last week, she remains with a massive amount of potential & must go very well again here with the recent rain a plus.
Looks between Mecca's Angel & Moviesta, i can't split them so will leave it alone.
Up at Ayr are two of the most competitive sprints run all year in the Silver & Gold Cups; I'll start with the SIlver Cup, Richard Fahey has trained 2 winners in the last 10 years & 7 out of the last 10 winners have started at double figure odds. Drawn is pretty even between high & low.
Santefisio drops back to sprinting for the first time since finishing a good 3rd at Pontefract on a good race last year, not a ridiculous shout that this decent handicapper could enjoy this & a frame contender. Similar comments apply to Redvers who looked all over the winner everywhere bar the line at Ascot 2 weeks ago, should have the pace for this & a player. Compton Park has done well since returning to this country from Spain this season, came unstuck from his new mark in the Portland last week but can be forgiven that & 2 winner sin the last 10 years have come from the Portland.
Majestic Moon ran a excellent race at Goodwood last time over 7f, he never got involved in The Great St Wilfrid the time before & is worth another try at 6f from a good draw. Foxtrot Romeo is likely to be well found in the market after another good effort at Wolverhampton last time in a hot race, he got going late on & was an eye catcher at the end, player. You would assume Newstead Abbey has been laid out for one of these Cup races as he has not been seen since June, has some good form in the book & could easily play a part. Hitchens ran a decent race at Doncaster last week from this mark, on his best form he would pick up these lot & carry them but he is 9 now so its unlikely he will figure. Bogart is on a hugely attractive mark judging by last week's effort in the Portland & must be considered. Lexi's Hero was formerly a decent sprinter, took advantage of a lower mark a few starts back at Chester but will struggle here.
Sir Reginald ran no sort of race in a race at Doncaster that he won last year, mark keeps dropping as a result & has a top claimer on board, not beyond the realms of possibility if he's on a going day. Tatlisu deserves a decent pot after a string of good efforts in these big sprints throughout the summer. Inxile has been a tremendous sprinter over the years & managed to win a few starts ago from a 3lb lower mark, this tougher as a 9yo like Hitchens & others look better. Yeeoow hasn't looked in the same form for a while now & is best watched. Ansaab has plenty to do on what we have seen this year.
Mission Approved got stuck in a pocket last week at Doncaster & is better than his finishing position, will need luck once more here but looks well weighted.
Farlow would have won the Bronze Cup last season had he been drawn on the Stands side, one of these cups would have been his target all season & a big run can be expected. Cosmic Chatter was useful in the early stages of his 2yo career but has shown very little ever since. Trojan Rocket is much better on the AW & will struggle here. Green Howard is on a hat trick going into this race dropping back to 6f, he was a close up 2nd in The Bronze Cup last season & is now racing of a mark of 100 in this better race. Angus Og has been found out on his last 2 starts & would prefer softer ground.
Mehdi hasn't been beaten all that far on his 2 starts this season, the pace of this race will likely suit better & is not without hope.
Huntsman's Close has been running quite consistently for him since joining Roger Charlton appeared not to quite get home after being hampered at Doncaster last week & has a chance. Arctic Feeling should remain competitive with the claim of young Sammy Jo Bell, he has found his form on his last 4 starts including when a cracking 4th in Ireland last weekend. Mezzotint remains well handicapped but also remains an enigma, he looked to have every chance at Chester last week but failed to get home, dropping back in a big field will help here but comes with risks. Repetition has plenty on in this company while Lexington Abbey could love the way this race is run & looks an interesting runner.
Too tough for me to get involved.
The Gold Cup itself is a fantastic race this year featuring some old favourites & plenty of new blood in the handicap sprint ranks.
8 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 while Dandy Nicholls & Kevin Ryan have won 6 renewals between them in the last 10 years. High numbers have had an advantage in recent years with 6 winners in the last 10, the average weight that the winner has carried is from 8-13 to 9-2.
Jack Dexter is lumbered with top weight as he was last year when an excellent 3rd, there was cut in the ground last year which is what he needs & his form so far this year has been poor.
Alben Star keeps threatening to win a big one but as a result is pretty high in the handicap & even with his young jockeys claim there are plenty of horses who look better treated.
Hamza is the pace angle for the low horses, he started the year with an all the way win in a Group 3 at newmarket but it has a season of gradual regression since, he has run with more substance of his last 2 starts in Ireland but it is some ask to make all the running here.
Mass Rally is on a similar mark to when finishing 11th last year in this, his form this year has been average. Plenty to do despite being a previous winner of a Ayr Silver Cup. Heaven's Guest has been in pretty good form since popping up in The Bunbury Cup in the summer, drop back to 6f will be fine for him as he was a strong finishing 4th last year as a 3yo, the talented young Sammy Jo Bell takes 5lb off his back which aides his chances but I am sure that connections would have preferred more rain for him to be at his best.
Blaine was handicapped to go close last time & duly did under an excellent ride from Amy Ryan, this is a stiff 6f here at Ayr & he has always struck me as a an out & out speedster which is a negative in this contest.
Louis The Pious has gone back into hiding ever since his surprise win at Royal Ascot back in the summer, has plenty to do from this mark despite being 2nd last year.
An Saighdiur has been 3rd in the last 2 runnings of the Silver Cup off lower marks, he hasn't improved so far this year & usually runs his best races with plenty of cut in the ground (one of the pace angles for the high drawn animals).
Ruwaiyan has run deplorably on his last 2 starts including just 6 days ago in a Listed event in Sweden, not the most orthodox preparation for a race such as this. On his 4th in The Stewards he does however have a chance if he can recapture his best form.
Eastern Impact bids to become the first 3yo since Funfair Wane (2002) to win & only the 3rd since Daring Destiny in 1994. He has improved throughout the season in good 3yo handicaps winning 2 at Newmarket but is plenty high enough as a result & may find this a year too soon.
Ashpan Sam has been struggling on his last few starts with his new handicap mark but ran better at York last time over 5f, not enough for me to suggest he can get involved however (another low drawn pace angle).
Watchable was in my thinking for an Ayr Gold Cup & then he went at won at The Curragh last Sunday which is not ideal, the 5lb rise is no hardship as he has the potential to make it at Group level but whether he can win another top big field sprint just 6 days later is an issue.
Jimmy Styles won this back in 2009 but is not the same horse anymore & at the age of 10 has plenty on his plate.
Minalisa has not been seen since winning a Listed event at Naas in July, she has hardly any experience of big field handicaps as her career has mainly been spent in small field conditions or stakes races, work to do from this mark.
Rene Mathis has a real Ayr Gold Cup winners vibe about him, extremely progressive this term winning well at Newmarket in a decent 6f handicap from a mark of 89, ran at Royal Ascot albeit down the field, finished a good 3rd to one of the best handicap sprinters around in Muthmir & then won a soft ground 7f handicap, stamina for 7f is prudent in an Ayr Gold Cup as the stats have proved over the year (9 of the last 10 winners had won or run well at 7f previously). He can be forgiven his run last Saturday at Leopardstown as he was in a heap of trouble from an early stage, his middling drawn means he can go anywhere (personally I hope David Allan goes high) & I fully expect a very decent run from him here.
Racy has surely had his win for this season & is most unreliable in any case. Hawkeyethenoo perhaps surprisingly for him has never run well in both his attempts at an Ayr Gold Cup, he is not getting any younger & has been struggling for awhile now.
York Glory is bang out of form this season & can only be watched at present.
Go Far's winning run came to an end in The Portland last weekend but in truth he was far from disgraced as he saw very little luck in running & was finished well at the end, not out of this.
Captain Ramius is a former winner (2012) from a 2lb lower mark than he sits on here, his form however has been regressive & he has shown nothing since a 2nd at Doncaster at the start of last season. Softer ground would be more his bag.
Burn The Boats comes over from Ger Lyons stable in Ireland, he was favourite to win last week at Leopardstown but was 2 places behind Rene Mathis & never fired. He has limited experience at 6f & is plenty short enough from what I can see.
Ballesteros is a conundrum...he has bags of ability but rarely consents to show it, 5f on soft ground is more his bag though & the worry is will his stamina last over a stiff 6f.
Duke Of Firenze has had limited opportunities to show what he can do for new trainer Robert Cowell this season, his last run in a conditions event told us nothing really & he returns to Ayr off a 4lb lower mark than when finishing 21st last season. Has still to prove that 6f in top company really suits.
Barnet Fair struggled from his new mark at Haydock last time & a similar fate is likely here despite showing himself in good form since joining Dandy Nicholls stable, just lasted the 6f at Goodwood the time before & will struggle over this stiffer 6f here. Fast Shot has struggled from this mark on his last 3 starts with Rachel Richardson's claim so I cannot see any reason why that should change here.
Supplicant wasn't beaten far on his big handicap sprint debut at Ripon last time from a 2lb higher mark, that was a blanket finish at Ripon so I would be unsure of the form overall, so far this season he has really struggled looking at times as if he hadn't fully trained on. As a 3yo he has work to do anyway & while I could see him running ok finishing say 6th or 7th a win is asking too much on the plus side he did win the Mill Reef at Newbury on this day last year. The other 3yo in the line up is the progressive Highland Acclaim who was given a peach of a ride by Richard Hughes to get up in the shadow of the post on Shergar Cup day, he wasn't beaten far next time at the Berkshire venue in a good 7f behind Safety Check & out of the three 3yo's he would be the one I would expect to do best.
Do quite fancy Rene Mathis 22/1 E/W Coral / BetVictor to take this out.
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