Hello & welcome along to my blog as the Flat season begins to draw to a close with Doncaster hosting the final Group 1 of the season The Group 1 Racing Post Trophy which over the years has become a solid breeding ground for producing Classic winners.
But perhaps the best race run anywhere in the world on Saturday takes place at Moonee Valley in Victoria not far from Melbourne early on Saturday morning. The course itself is small & compact, with a the shortest home straight in Australia of just 173 yards so historically handy horses or front runners do particularly well at the track.
Australia's premier weight for age race is the highlight of Saturday's card;
The $3 Million Australian Dollars Sportingbet W.S Cox Plate live on ATR over just over 10 furlongs.
This years race has attracted for the first time in the races history a runner from Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle stables in Ireland plus 2 runners from the UK.
Australia's best miler Sacred Falls attempts to win at further than a mile for the the first time in his career, he is a 4 time Group 1 winner including back to back wins in The Doncaster Mile at Randwick. He didn't enjoy the best of runs in The Caulfield Stakes last time & he stayed on well to the line suggesting 10 furlongs on a tight track would suit. Needs luck in running from stall 9.
Fawkner last year's Caulfield Cup winner has returned in great form this preparation finishing a good 2nd in the Criterion on his return before getting the run of the race to win The Caulfield Stakes last time, has again drawn a good stall & must be involved.
Side Glance is an admirable international runner who won a Group 1 in Australia last year under an inspired Spencer ride, has a decent gate in 7 for a front runner although faces competition from The Cleaner, ran well in Caulfield Stakes but this is as tough, overpriced though on his best form.
Happy Trails hasn't enjoyed any luck on his last 2 starts in Group 1 company, previous to that had only just missed out in The Underwood. Has a much better draw here as he bids to go one place better than last year.
Foreteller won the Underwood but was never involved last time out & has stall 1 against the rails which is not great for a horse who likes to be held up.
The Cleaner is the current Australian folk hero who has progressed in handicaps at Moonee Valley winning the Moonee Valley JRA Cup last time in comfortable fashion, poor draw in 14 but don't underestimate this front running course specialist in a race that is known for shocks.
Guest Of Honour wouldn't be more than Group 3 class in this country but in recent weeks that has not stopped horses like Junoob winning in top company, never won at this distance & didn't show much in The Toorak last time out still it would not be the biggest surprise should he run a good race 2nd time up.
Criterion will appreciate the slight step up in trip & ran a screamer in the Caulfield Stakes last time running the fastest last 200 metres of anything in the race, appears to be coming to the boil for a big effort & not discounted from a good draw.
Silent Achiever is a fabulous New Zealand mare who has too be honest run flat so far this spring but now gets the services of Nash Rawiller, draw not wonderful but then she is a hold up mare.
Royal Descent finally gets a step up in trip after 4 straight 2nd places at around the mile, classy at her best but slightly concerned that she has forgotten how to win.
Adelaide represents Ballydoyle, he is seasoned international campaigner & is still only 3 having already won a Secretariat in the US plus Group 1 places in France. Has drawn a horrible gate on this tight course but does have the services of the best rider in the world. Fascinating to see how he gets on.
Almalad was an impressive winner of the Bill Stutt here 2 starts ago but was not sighted in the Caulfield Guineas, not without hope though if he stays with course form a big plus.
Sweynesse represents Godolphin Australia, he is a grand looking son of Lonhro who was unbeaten until not getting the best of runs in The Spring Champions Stakes at Randwick last time, he stayed on well that day & promises to well suited by the trip here although his gate is not wonderful for a hold up performer.
Wandjina caught the eye staying on late in The Caulfield Guineas last time, steadily improving & has the best draw of the 3 year olds so a big run would be no surprise.
Superb race & my top 4 are as follows:
1) Criterion 8/1 BetVictor / Ladbrokes / Coral / William Hill
2) The Cleaner
3) Happy Trails
4) Side Glance
On to the big race in the UK on Saturday afternoon, this years renewal at this moment in time lacks the real star of recent years & has a much more open feel to it which overall must be good for the race.
Aidan O'Brien has selected just the 2 from his usual bulk entry, they are Aloft & Jacobean; Aloft has had 2 starts so far a decent 2nd on debut at Gowran followed by a last gasp victory in an ordinary Newmarket maiden, plenty to do.
Jacobean has had just the one start in a big field Curragh maiden behind stablemate Royal Navy Ship when favourite, he was green early & lost his place before staying powerfully down the outside, no doubt it was a promising run but it didn't scream Group 1 winner next time. Incredibly short on that run & priced up who his connections are more so than his form.
Cock Of North is thoroughly exposed at a level well below Group 1 so he has work to do.
Celestial Path is a most unusual Sir Mark Prescott 2yo as he was forward enough to win well on debut before winning an ordinary Listed race at Haydock on similar ground that he will face here in good style, the 2nd that day has since been beaten even further by Elm Park so that suggests Celestial Path will need to improve again but that is entirely possible.
Elm Park has not looked back since finishing 3rd to the exciting Latharnach on debut winning on soft at Newbury, a reasonable Listed event at Salisbury (Tupi held) & The Royal Lodge when really struggling with the course at Newmarket. He is more workmanlike than explosive to me & all though he brings the best form into the race I would not be at all surprised should a rival improve past him. Another negative is surely that if his trainer thought he would win he would have stayed in England rather than go to Australia to watch Side Glance in The Cox Plate on Saturday am.
Restorer (grey in photo) belied his inflated odds in a Group 3 at Newmarket last time when finishing 2nd, it was a huge step up on his previous run when he was well beaten by the subsequent Group 3 (poor race for grade) winning filly Local Time, his rating seems somewhat false to me so I would expect there to better animals than him in this field.
Snoano is a well put together son of Nayef who has plenty more development left in him over the winter, he improved from an excellent debut run (7th in the hottest maiden run this year at Newmarket) to win comfortably in a small field maiden at Sandown on fast ground showing versatility, he then went to the Haynes, Hanson & Clark at Newbury & showed real battling qualities in ground that was much softer than advertised when holding Acaster Mablis all the way to the line. He travelled well into that race & has been hugely underestimated by the bookie chappies.
Tupi has gone backwards since his maiden win & a good 2nd in The Vintage at Goodwood, he was well beaten in France next time by Nucifera who has been exposed since & was last behind Elm Park last time out. Plenty to prove but has been given time to recover & a return to softer ground will help.
I am a fan of Snoano 12/1 E/W BetVictor / Stan James / Winner / TitanBet / Unibet & he has been missed for me by the odds compilers, he is huge value in what is a much weaker field than in recent years. Massive chance.
Opening up Doncaster's card is a 6f Listed event for colts & fillies;
Burning The Clocks dons a hood for the first time as he attempts to break his maiden on his 7th start, looks to have plenty to find.
Code Red won easily in a slowly run 6f maiden at Nottingham last time after a couple of in behind runs, up in class & work to do although ground will suit.
Growl is a decent looking type who still has plenty of room for growing over the winter, he appeared to only just handle soft ground last time at Newbury. Can do better in a weaker race. Lackaday broke his maiden on his 6th start in a heavy ground Brighton maiden last time beating Burning The Clocks but does need to improve here. Manofmanytalents has plenty to find on what he has shown in 3 starts to date. Portamento has put it all together on his last 3 starts including when bolting up by 10 lengths at Haydock on soft ground last time, has to go close here.
Salt Island was well fancied & duly won nicely on debut at Windsor travelling well through the race before quickening clear, should be ok on softer ground & is open to plenty of improvement. Rosie's Premiere was well held in the Cornwallis last week, she needs to prove she stays 6f.
Not a race I can bet in despite liking Growl as a horse.
Older horses step out onto Town Moor over 1m4f in the 2nd a race which has attracted just the 11 runners;
Dashing Star remains too high in the handicap but softer ground will help this powerfully built animal. Forgotten Hero did well to finish as close as he did in The Cambridgeshire last time after a good run here on his previous start, this is much more his trip & this is his ground, big player. Brigadoon is on a career high mark after just winning last time, plenty on his plate here. Proud Chieftain has plenty of ability but does not always consent to show it, capable but likely to find 1 or 2 too good.
Open Eagle took advantage of a career low mark last time at York, has been competitive from his new mark before & can get involved.
Kashmir Peak was 2nd in this race from a slightly higher mark last year but has unfortunately been well below par this time around.
Latenightrequest has been found out in better quality races on her last 2 starts, she won over this trip carrying a featherweight at Haydock 2 starts ago, softer ground here will help but does have to improve again. Knife Point ran a big race in a quality 3 year old handicap last time which was another step forward, promises to be well suited by softer ground & is a player. Ruwasi is a consistent late season improving 3 year old who has already beaten Brigadoon this season, his last start was another step forward at a decent level & he should really appreciate this potentially softer surface.
Emeraldhz is another improving 3 year old, her last start was a decent 2nd at York & she has good form on much softer ground which will help if the heavens open, carries a featherweight with her decent 5 lb claimer Jack Garrity taking the ride. Oasis Fantasy never got involved when well fancied last time & remains a little high in the weights, ground is also an issue.
Forgotten Hero should enjoy the ground & may have to much for Ruwasi & Knife Point.
The most competitive race on the card is a 22 runner 5f sprint featuring all the usual suspects; Steps can win despite his big weight & of course young Kieran Shoemark's 7lb claim does help ease the burden but as always with him he needs plenty of luck.
B Fifty Two wouldn't want much more rain & is on a career high mark.
Demora will appreciate dropping back in class after struggling in Listed races on her last 4 starts, her young jockey's claim gives her a chance.
Kickboxer has been a model of consistency this season running well in Listed company on his last start, ground is in his favour once more & hard to keep out of the frame.
Ajjaadd is a decent animal but even with his riders claim he remains high enough. Lancelot Du Lac has been unable to get competitive all season from marks over 100, he is now only 1lb higher than when winning at Kempton in November last year so has a chance. Seeking Magic has struggled overall this season looking like he could win on several occasions but as a result he has dropped in the weights, ground should be ok as he is by Haafhd. Dungannon won this last year & returns on a similar mark after winning at Ascot last time, needs plenty of luck but should get involved.
Golden Steps has not been seen that often & remains with potential, should be fine on the ground. Viva Verglas is in with a chance at the weights & has form on softer ground, player. Confessional remains favourably weighted, he ran well last Saturday but had no chance with an even better handicapped winner, place chances again.
Ballesteros remains an enigma, ideally he needs olding up & good luck if you back him. Peterkin needs softer ground to bring about improvement.
Sleepy Sioux won in a lower grade last time out, she has never won of a mark this high but on a positive angle ground will suit. Doc Hay enjoyed the soft ground at Pontefract on Monday winning again & remains well handicapped on the very best of his form.
Megaleka produced a much improved performance in soft ground at Nottingham last week, unlikely to reproduce that though.
Jamaican Bolt keeps running well but struggles to win.
Ancient Cross is supremely well handicapped but has looked a shadow of his former self this year. Counter Ridge is hard to analyze as a former useful South African horse, she has run just twice in the UK showing much more last time with a good 2nd, up 3lbs for that & interesting to see if she can improve on that.
Magical Macey is ludicrously well handicapped, he hasn't raced of a mark this low since 2011. Big player if he can regain any spark.
Elusivity doesn't; win often enough to warrant any confidence in a race like this. Gladatrix will enjoy the ground but has always struggled in races as good as this in the past.
Tough race at any time of year let alone end of season.
Newbury also race on Saturday & like Doncaster the card as a whole is below par to what you would usually expect with the 3 main races having rather disappointingly attracted just 22 runners between them. The Horris Hill is poor with just 6 runners facing the starter; Fox Trotter has been exposed as well below this grade in his last 4 starts but soft ground could easily bring about some improvement.
King Of Normandy has so far finished 4th & 9th in maidens; firstly in France & last time out in a good quality race at Doncaster, cannot really be fancied.
Lexington Times had no hope dropping back against pacey animals last time at Doncaster after a tremendous effort in a Group 3 on a softer surface at Sandown, brings the best form into the race & holds leading claims in a poor race.
Mukhayyam will enjoy the return to a softer surface after never getting involved on quicker ground in a Group 3 at Newmarket last time out, still remains with potential.
Not So Sleepy is a rarity amongst Hughie Morrison trained 2 year olds as he won on his debut on desperate ground just 10 days ago, the time was awfully slow but he couldn't do anymore, the most interesting runner in the race.
Smaih has so far not proved up to this grade but has won a a small field conditions event at Deauville on soft ground & that form gives him hope here.
Poor race & not one I would bet in.
The St Simon Stakes has attracted 8 runners over the 1m4f;
Battalion has not gone on in this grade so far this season after winning easily in handicap company but he ran his best race so far on the AW weather last time & soft ground is a plus. Glorious Protector looked well before a similar Group 3 over course & distance last time but in truth was disappointing finishing well behind future Canadian International winner Hillstar, Tasaday & Cubanita. This is easier but has to prove he is up to the grade now.
Penglai Pavillion again showed nothing after a long break last time out, his temperament is so far getting the better of him but he can be given some semblance of hope as he is finally back on his favoured soft surface. Godolphin's 2nd runner is Sky Hunter who like Penglai had shown little in 2 starts earlier in the season looking laboured, he reappeared after a long break to win well in a average Listed event at Ayr, he has form on the ground & holds strong claims here.
Rawaki got back into the winners circle last time out at Salisbury in a small field conditions event, so far he has lacked a change of pace in Group races.
Quiz Mistress was a well beaten 4th in this last year & all her best form has come in France, work to do. Red Galileo has come into form on his last 2 starts with two 2nd's at Doncaster & in a slowly run Listed event at Newmarket when he was out battled by Nabucco. Soft ground is not ideal for him & so far he has yet to prove up to this company. Stablemate the filly Island Remede's form is well below what is required.
Another race I will leave alone.
The 2 year old fillies try for some end of season black type in the 6f Radley Stakes;
Astrelle faces a much easier task than she has done in recent starts & she ran her best race in Group company when chasing home Local Time at Newmarket, a return to a softer surface should help her here. Disprove looks set to struggle in this grade after finishing down the field at Ayr & 3rd on soft ground in Germany.
Lacing has run well in big money auction races on her last 2 starts which gives her a chance here. Muffri' Ha improved from her maiden to bolt up on softer ground at Chester last time, she was impressive that day & is unexposed so is well worth a go in this grade. Russian Punch has so far been easily beaten in better races on her last few starts but the return to softer ground will help. Shagah has been running ok in behind better rivals on her last 2 starts & should appreciate the easier grade.
Silver Rainbow improved markedly on her debut run when well beaten by Local Time to score by 6 lengths in a lowly Class 5 maiden at Wolverhampton last time, could be anything. Sweet Dream is a well bred filly who showed that she has a distinct liking for ground with plenty of cut (2nd on good to soft on debut) in it when breaking her maiden on ground that was verging on soft at Newcastle last time, she could now go on again after that win.
Sweet Dream is well worth a bet having won nicely last time out.
@fttfracing
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