Good evening & welcome along to my latest blog covering the #DWCC2015, last week the tide turned with a decent win from Famous Kid, a selection at 11/2 who is a horse I have had plenty of time for since early last season so it was rewarding to see him to win so well stepped up in trip. A solid effort from La Bernardin in the 2nd Round of The Al Maktoum challenge saw the blog in profit for the first time in a couple of weeks so I personally hope that it continues for the remainder of the Carnival.
Normally I would cover every race but time is in short supply this week so I will be missing out Race 1 the non carnival event which I have had little luck in anyway over the last few weeks.
Race 2 on the card is a 1m2f handicap on Turf which has attracted a decent field;
Mike De Kock's classy ex South African graded runner Rock Cocktail heads the weights after an eye catching run on his Carnival debut after over a year off the track staying on late behind stablemate Umgiyo, surely he must improve from that run having looked light in the paddock & holds excellent claims here.
Fellow ex South African dual Grade 1 winner Slumdogmillionaire ran much better last week with a battling display from the front, he appeared well beat as the front 2 cleared away from him but he rallied well for 3rd in a very hot mile handicap. He has yet to win at this trip & in his South African races has looked as if the mile was as far as he wanted to go.
Belgian Bill has been better known in recent seasons as a 7f to 1 mile animal but does have plenty of back form over this trip including a close up 2nd here in 2012 to the useful Songcraft. He was on his best behaviour when winning first time & is still weighted to get involved but the suspicion for me is that this trip will stretch him.
Pilote is clearly a hard horse to catch right as his record suggests & he will always at least one too good.
Sennockian Star was hugely disappointing last time out in a much classier race, like any Mark Johnston runner you write them & on the plus side this race is less competitive on paper so he could easily get involved.
Van Rooney was never involved last week & has big stamina queries at this trip.
Berling has continually struggled at the Carnival & remains low on the list.
Ottoman Empire is not getting any better at the age of 9 & his best form in recent seasons has come on Tapeta although he is only a pound above his last winning mark. Scighera was last here 2 weeks ago & is quite a light framed filly who will be better stepped up in trip back against her own sex.
Almoonqith didn't enjoy the best of trips here 2 weeks ago before finishing off well in the straight, he looks the type who can still progress off his current mark & is worth another try at this kind of trip, player.
Avon Pearl struggled in a hot race last week when I fancied him & stamina must be a huge concern this time.
Tha'ir unsurprisingly hated the dirt on his return, back on turf he is more than capable of getting involved now under his last winning mark.
Ukrainian has struggled the last twice on dirt & has plenty to find.
Silent Bullet is a most intriguing runner stepping up from 7f to 1m2f for the first time in his career, he is not bred to stay & does not shape like a horse who will so it is surprising that SBS is attempting it.
Interesting race in which the winner should come from Rock Cocktail, Almoonqith & Tha'ir with slight preference for me is Rock Cocktail.
The second Classic of the UAE season comes up next for colts & geldings;
Zephuros tries dirt for a 2nd time after failing to convince in the trial & he was quite easily beaten in the Meydan Classic Trial back on Turf last week,plenty to do.
Burnt Sugar ran abysmally last week in the Meydan Classic Trial & now tries dirt for the first time in his career with a pedigree screaming Turf, cannot be fancied after last weeks effort.
Runaway impressive Trial winner Mubtaahij has improved on both his starts this term looking every inch a dirt specialist last time out, hard to beat once more if in that form.
Stablemate Ajwad ran a highly encouraging race after a long absence in the trial chasing home Mubtaahij, he is entitled to come massively as a big animal but he still may struggle to give weight to his slightly younger rivals so he may be best left for the Derby.
Unorthodox ran ok on his first dirt start but not well enough to suggest he can trouble the principles here.
It is perhaps odd at first glance that Maftool is the mount of Paul Hanagan but on closer inspection at present James Doyle is struggling to do less than 8-10 so with William Buick first choice to Charlie Appleby it makes sense to have another Maktoum retained rider on Maftool (also & the main reason is that Sheikh Hamdan has the majority share in the horse), the horse himself missed the break badly in the trial before making plenty of eye catching distance up in a fast run race to finish an honorable 3rd, if he jumps on terms he is a huge danger to Mubtaahij. Padlock ran ok first time on dirt but like Unorthodox was a long way behind the principals who he re-oppose today.
With so few runners the race is not a betting proposition.
The Group 3 Al Shindagha Sprint is slightly below the quality of the Dubawi a few weeks ago but has still produced an interesting lineup;
Speed Hawk switches back to dirt after another disappointing turf start last time, he ran well enough on dirt first time but failed to collar the long time leader Beat Baby who re-opposes here so that is a concern upped in class.
Machete Mark has been a huge disappointment on both his turf starts at the Carnival & cannot be fancied first time on dirt dropped to a trip he has faced just once in his life.
Boomshackerlacker has gone ok on both his dirt starts so far including last time when he threatened to get involved, drops to 6f for the first time since his 2yo days & will find this much tougher than his is normally used to.
Old Krypton Factor looks to recapture former glories as he tackles dirt for the first time, a former Golden Shaheen winner back in 2012 when he carried all before him he has been a light of former years ever since although he did manage to win at Hamilton in a minor race last year. Has potential to handle the surface but will need to be ready.
Another Party is a surprise runner for me as he hated the dirt last time out & I cannot see him getting involved.
Similar comments apply to Modern History who is a useful turf handicapper who has never faced dirt before or 6f. His sire has produced a couple of dirt winners here this year & his dam Fatefully was apart of Frankie's Magnificent 7 all those years ago. Shaishee unsurprisingly struggled back on turf for the first time since his 2yo days last time out, he now comes back to the surface that has seen rapid improvement since he first encountered it late last year, a strong travelling front runner who is effective at this trip so is entitled to be thereabouts.
Beat Baby showed a liking for the dirt surface when running away with a poor handicap here a few weeks ago (Speed Hawk held), he was clearly wound up that day but this represents a step up in class so he is likely to struggle although as a previous winner on the surface he needs at least some respect.
Reynaldothewizard benefited from a very strong pace in the Dubawi to stay on powerfully & run away with the race, as a 9yo he is unlikely to find much improvement from that effort but he may not need to.
Rafeej was a well beaten 9th in this last year but he returned in some style here just before Christmas to win a decent Listed event over this course & distance in impressive fashion, that form has been let down since but he needs respecting after showing a liking for the surface although the break since is slightly off-putting.
A mixture of horses with chances & plenty who have no hope, this should concern Reynaldothewizard, Rafeej & Shaishee although a no bet race for me.
A tremendous 12f handicap on turf is up next basically a Group race in all but name;
Classy Sanshaawes heads the weights, he has looked laboured in pattern races so far over shorter & tries this trip for the first time in his career, he does not strike me as a stayer plus he has plenty on carrying top weight.
Former classy French import Teletext runs for one of the Crown Princes of Saudi Arabia & is heading there after the Carnival which is a huge shame, he ran some tremendous races in France last season including 3rd in a Grand Prix De Paris Group 1 on horrible ground (travelled like the best horse) & a 2nd to Ectot (wound up like a corkscrew) in the Prix Niel Group 2. He has always promised to be better on better ground & gets that chance here, a big bull of a horse he should make some 4yo & his trainer Pascal Bary is adept at improving his older horses. He could easily prove far too classy for his opponents & can hopefully win this before taking in the Sheema Classic on World Cup night.
Star Empire was expected to go close in a race he historically has done well over the years last week but he was disappointing, this is much tougher & he has work to do again. Solciologo Inc a former top class Argentine Grade 1 winner struggled behind some good horses over a trip short of her best last time, she is entitled to have needed that & could easily go much better over a trip that will suit better.
Excellent Result was ridden well in a slowly run race here last time fading near the finish for 5th, that was a marked step up on his form at the end of last season in Europe & he is entitled to come on for that, as a former Group 2 winner here last season he has to have solid claims although he is facing at least one potential Group 1 horse here.
Without Fear has no chance again & is passed over, similar comments apply to the lazy El Estruendoso. Jutland is a good honest animal but in recent years has been better on dirt & faces some top class horses here.
Al Saham looked like he would win easier than he did last time after moving into contention easily but in the end he only just held on, a better pace will help this long striding son of Authorized to improve again which he is capable of, player once more.
Eye In The Sky was a close up 4th behind Al Saham that day after setting the slow pace which flattered his finishing position & he will need more to get that close here this time around. Old Carnival warrior Songcraft returns once more this year now racing from a hugely reduced & inviting handicap mark of 102, he has been a previous Carnival winner off 105, 110 & 106 including the last 2 renewals of this race. He has won first time out in 4 of his 6 racing seasons so must hold outstanding claims again this time around.
Fire Fighting continued his progression here at Meydan a few weeks ago when flying late from a slow pace to only just fail to catch Al Shaham, he needs more again this time taking on some much better rivals but is clearly going the right way & is another who will enjoy the likely stronger pace.
Cracking race in which Godolphin as usual hold outstanding claims with all 3 of there runners a slight preference for Songcraft who goes so well fresh but he may do well to hold the potentially top class Teletext (NAP) who should make a super 4yo.
Another of the night's features comes up next in the shape of the 1 mile Firebreak Stakes Group 3 on dirt;
United Color steps up again in trip again after a decent 3rd over 7f last time, he is perennially slow away which is a huge disadvantage on dirt.
The much improved but still moody Tamarkuz produced a performance right out of the top draw last time to make all pulling further clear in a handicap over course & distance, holds outstanding claims of gaining a first Group success although its worth noting that both times this year he has been the 2nd string & Paul Hanagan has yet to win on him.
Encipher ran a big race on dirt here last time behind another useful Hamdan horse in Muaanid, has a few pounds to find with the best of these but is worthy of respect.
Ex Aidan O'Brien trained Darwin makes his Mike De Kock debut here, he showed useful pattern form without winning in Europe last year mixing trips. A former US runner in his youth he has a win on Belmont's dirt track to his name so has no issues on the surface however I am genuinely concerned about him at the trip as he has looked a non stayer since a minor win at Naas on his Irish debut at the mile where he was by far the best so didn't need to truly stay.
Fencing is perhaps the oddest acquisition that Godolphin have ever made, he promised so much as a 2yo but has failed to deliver in the last 3 seasons winning just once since a Listed mile race at Ascot in 2013 since then he has been made to look ordinary in minor pattern company however there may well be method in the madness as his sire is Street Cry who has dominated the new Meydan dirt surface, fascinating runner.
Gold City ran a decent race behind stablemate Surfer in Round 1 of The Al Maktoum Challenge & this has been the aim ever since, clearly fine on the surface, has place potential & could nick a big win if others underperform.
Empire Storm performed with great credit behind runaway winner Tamarkuz last time & re-opposes on level weights here, he has many lengths to find but clearly is fine on the surface & if the favourite underperforms is another who could get involved.
Romansh is a fascinating runner for Salem Bin Ghadayer who enjoyed his biggest success with Frankyfourfingers last week, he was a good class US older pattern performer for Godolphin America last year winning a Grade 3 on his first start before finishing a superb 3rd in The Metropolitan behind the classy Palace Malice. His form failed to match that standard therein but there were plenty of excuses each time with races run in an unsuitable way & minor knocks. He will be fine on the surface & could be so much better than his opponents.
Gold Pearl is better known as a Jebel Ali performer & has plenty on his plate here. Busker has been struggling from marks in the high 90's to 100 recently & now steps up into pattern company, he will be readily rolled over.
Was a fan of Romansh last year I would be expecting a bold showing here before taking in the Godolphin Mile on World Cup Night. Tamarkuz is feared after his last performance but can he back that up?
Closing the card is a classy looking 9f Turf handicap for Group class performers;
Mujaarib was disappointing on his return behind stablemate Vercingetorix back in a handicap, Hanagan has deserted him here which is a concern.
Vancouverite made a hugely promising 2nd behind Vercingetorix in the Jebel Hatta last year before hating the Tapeta in the World Cup, he came back with a good 2nd after meeting trouble in running in a hot Newbury Listed race in late summer. He was expected to win at Haydock next time out but was a huge disappointment although it was later found that the horse scoped dirty so that run is excused. He has been given a chance by the handicapper & could well prove too good for his rivals.
Be Ready makes a surprising return to the track after again suffering from a irregular heartbeat a month ago, he has schooled at Meydan since & is reportedly doing well that connections wish to give him one last try, lightly raced as a result of his problems if he was ever to recapture his best he could be a proper Group horse which would make him hard to beat but he can only be watched.
Zahee has a useful level of form but also has plenty of attitude & is just as likely to throw in a stinker as running up to form.
Limario struggled on dirt last time & switches back in a decent race, only showed useful minor pattern form on the continent so is likely to struggle here.
Old Mushreq has been given yet another chance by the handicapper after meeting trouble in running last time before staying on late behind Hunter's Light, clearly entitled to go close but his old legs remain vulnerable to younger improvers.
Ocean Tempest ran a super race last time out although that was a relatively slow pace which suited the way he was ridden, for me he is still going to struggle from this mark against some genuine Group performers.
Elleval really needs a strong end to end gallop which he did not get last time despite finishing with some effect behind Hunter's Light, he must hold good claims once more from the same mark.
Nolohay will appreciate the slight step up in trip after a promising effort over the mile last week, minor pattern class in France he will surely be seen to better effect when upped further in trip but could easily nab a place here.
Start Right enjoyed a fine campaign with several placed effort last season although as a result he starts this season on a career high mark which is harsh for an 8yo.
Horsted Keynes's stamina must be a query as all his form is at 7f & his first start at the Carnival was a disappointment, best watched.
Quick Wit hated dirt last time out, he switches back to Turf now on an extremely inviting handicap mark on old form as he has won Carnival handicaps off 106 & 100 in the past, should have come on for his first outing & is not discounted from the bottom of the racecard.
I do hope Elleval can win for the Lavelle's who are great supporters but I fear that they may have to settle for a place behind another Godolphin horse this time in the shape of Vancouverite (NB).
@fttfracing
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