Dubai International Racing Carnival; Night Ten 'Super Saturday' Saturday 7th March 2015

Hello to all & welcome along to the blog & special thanks to those who have stuck by my ramblings over the last 2 months as by my own high standards it has been decidedly light on the winners front. 'Super Saturday' has arrived with trials for all the big races run on World Cup Night at the end of the month, i'll be completely honest the day as a whole does not live up to its lofty name tag with several of the races falling well short of the required standard.  

The opening event is the trial for the UAE Derby with sees the much anticipated UAE debut of Sir Fever the unbeaten Uruguayan superstar who has not seen a rival in 10 starts at Maronas including winning the domestic Triple Crown. His form overall is similar to the last great horse to come from Uruguay that of course was Invasor who went onto win a Dubai World Cup. If ratings are to be believed then Sir Fever faces a penalty kick on Saturday but that will be far from the case for a horse who ran 9 out of 12 months last year, the break since November of last year until now should have done the horse good & given him the time to adjust to Dubai but he could still easily be ring rusty at the shortest trip he has encountered since winning the Uruguayan 2000 Guineas in September. 

His last win was another dominant display when rolling away from his opponents in the last leg of the domestic Triple Crown over 1m4f at Maronas in November. If he is beaten then he will run in the UAE Derby but if he was to maintain his unbeaten record then a tilt at the big one is on the cards. 

As per usual Mike De Kock stands in the way of Godolphin with emphatic 2000 Guineas Trial winner Mubtaahij stepping up in trip once more he lost no cast in defeat last time to Maftool in the Guineas itself but stamina is a slight concern here given how much pace he has shown. 

Stablemate Ajwad should excel at this extended mile, forget his Guineas run as he missed the break & was always playing catch up. He had some decent 2yo form in Argentina & as a big horse he should now be starting to come into his own. 

Tashbeeh appeared to need his run in the Meydan Classic, solid enough run but faces a huge task now on dirt debut. 

Intensar is outclassed as is High Blade who was doing his winning in Uruguay at a much lower level than Sir Fever & he was disappointing on his UAE debut. 

Quarterback should relish this trip as both starts this Carnival have been staying on efforts on Turf, he encounters dirt for the first time in public but has worked well enough on it back in Scandinavia as he is the main local hope for their Derby run on Dirt, place chances at least.

Can only be a race to take a watching brief. 

Race 2 is the Mahab Al Shimaal over 6f on Dirt;

Runaway winner at last weeks Thursday meeting Price Is Truth takes another step up the ladder here, he bounced right back in an uncompetitive race & this is much tougher.  

Krypton Factor ran huge on his UAE return behind Reynaldothewizard last time out with the dirt looking a massive plus, has to take all the beating if repeating that run. 

Satwa Story has shown steady improvement throughout the Dubai season & this is actually his first run at the Carnival as his last win was achieved off 85 at a non carnival meeting, plenty of potential at this trip & not to be discounted. 

Farmah brings Italian Group 3 winning form to the table & minor French form at sprint distances, should not be underestimated given his American pedigree but this is a big ask on his dirt debut even though he is the pick of Hanagan. 

Mashaaref was a surprise winner last week over 7f when only the 3rd choice of the Hamdan runners, clearly capable & in good form, player if he gets on the lead again. 

The 3rd of the Hamdan runners this time is Nawwaar who ran ok last time behind Price Is Truth but overall has plenty to find. 

United Color has been running well enough at 7f & even a mile on his last 2 starts, he reverts to arguably his best trip here & could easily bounce back if can break & remain on terms. 

Cool Cowboy is an unexposed ex US animal who won comfortably in a much lesser grade at lowly Mountaineer Park in West Virginia last time, handles dirt so respected on that but does have work to do. 

Speed Hawk has twice ran with credit on the dirt including behind Reynaldothewizard last time, each way chances at best. 

Shaishee is a classy consistent individual who deserves another win, he is not out of this on his best form & didn't get the rub of the green last week when slowly away behind Mashaaref, if he can get out quicker he is a definite player.  

Shaishee is well worth chancing if he can get a better break.

Race is quite possibly the race of the night in what is a superb edition of the Meydan Sprint Group 3 up the straight 5f;

Caspian Prince won well last time making all & not seeing another rival, I have to be honest I expected him to struggle to win in Dubai so it was great credit to his connections that he improved again, this is much tougher again but you couldn't wish for him to be in better form & he will certainly get the run of the race once more so he is not ruled out.

High On Life showed nothing last time & needs more before being considered in this grade. 

Via Africa is a South African flying machine who won her 2nd S A Fillies Sprint Grade 1 in May last year, she also beat Red Ray (flopped on his only Dubai run) in January last year. That looks good form on paper although one word of caution the fillies sprinting division in South Africa wouldn't be the strongest & she often beats big priced horses, she handles 5f & must be respected given connections but she could well be over bet here. 

Rafeej has been disappointing on his last 2 dirt starts including in a very winnable race last week, plenty to prove here. 

Caspar Netscher enjoyed his finest hour when winning a Grade 2 in name only in Canada at the end of last year, he ran with credit in the Turf sprint at the Breeders Cup afterwards, trip has to be a big issue here though. 

Roi Du Vitesse won well recently at the Qatar Festival of Racing in what was basically a handicap, trip a problem as he has not won at 5f since his 2yo debut at Nottingham back in 2009. 

Mirza has been a cracking servant for his small stable over the last 2 years, he was a superb 5th in the Abbaye on his last start & is versatile as regards ground. 

Old Sole Power enjoyed a fabulous campaign last season proving himself the very best 5f sprinter around with wins in the Kings Stand & Nunthorpe, the wheels somewhat came off afterwards but he is back once more to try & gain his first win in Dubai. He has been placed in this race for the last 4 years but does usually need this first run. 

Monsieur Joe is outclassed on what we have seen this year as is Line Of Reason although he could run into a place on his best form if others underperform. had a big reputation on UAE debut but bombed out, he ran a much more promising race last time behind Caspian Prince but he didn't scream next time out winner & this is hugely competitive race. 

Sir Maximilian has been overall a disappointment having looked the perfect Dubai animal, he has one good 3rd over this trip to his name while his run last week was ok so perhaps with a really strong pace, the assistance of Fallon & running of level weights he can surprise. Lancelot Du Luc ran so well on debut but then bombed badly next time, he has a big task on in this grade.

Moviesta broke my heart on many occasions last season when I fancied him for some big sprints, ground & trip are perfect for him so if he is ready to roll he could easily get involved although he does usually need his first run. 

Ahtoug has had this as his aim ever since his handicap win last time, a Group class sprinter on his day he will surely play a part & is one of the most likely winners. Extortionist improved rapidly last season turning into one of the top 5f sprinters around, type to have progressed again over the winter but again it took him a few starts before he started to fire of all cylinders last time around.

Corking race in which its hard to rule anything out with real certainty, as it is a prep for so many it may be worth chancing Sir Maximilian E/W to finally put it all together in Dubai.

  

The 4th race on the card revolves around the revelation that has been Tamarkuz who has been electric on his last 2 starts blowing his rivals away with speed & power. If he is on his best behaviour once more then he wins. 

Romansh looked laboured last time & will need more to trouble Tamarkuz although he should easily reach a place. 

Old Plantagenet ran a solid race on his first Carnival start of the campaign last time but needs much more here. 

Bannock, Ocean Tempest & Haatheq are outclassed.
Genius Boy is a huge worry on the dirt. 

Sirius Prospect could run into a place if he breaks better than he did on his dirt debut 2 starts ago. 

Gold City is a solid place contender at his best but would have to find a good 8lbs to get anywhere near Tamarkuz. 

Muaanid ran a respectable race last week & rates a classy 2nd string to Sheikh Hamdan's bow, he is improving & well worth a go in this kind of race. 

Pylon is useful dirt / sand performer in South Africa up to Listed level, big ask after the layoff. 

Heavy Metal won last week on his dirt debut which I could not have foreseen & I cannot see him getting involved in this better company here. 

Layl is well worth a go in this grade given his progressive overall profile, he was extremely impressive last time travelling like a dream before scooting clear, he is the ones most likely to pick up the pieces if the favourites old frailties return. 

Not A Given is inconsistent & no up to this level.

Tamarkuz is incredibly hard to oppose but will be no price so no bet.

Race 5 is the Dubai City of Gold which has attracted a lopsided field;

Cooptado was clearly not up to top level on dirt last time & switches back to Turf a surface which he was placed in 2 Group 1's back in his native Argentina in 2013, work to do here. 

Zambucca is just a horse not in love with the game anymore judging by another poor effort in a handicap switched back to turf last week. 

Brass Ring was bought for big money at the horses in training sale late last year after some reasonable efforts at extreme distances last season, he has little hope of being competitive in a 12f Group race. 

Sheikhzayadroad enjoyed a fabulous 2014 winning here in January before rattling up a hat trick in late summer culminating with a Grade 1 win at Woodbine (race was barely Listed class in the UK), no reason he won't go well once more given his course winning form & must be respected. 

True Story was no match for Vercingetorix last time although ran well enough, he steps up to 12f for the 2nd time in his career here after looking a non stayer in the Derby last year. He is worth another go this time around & could easily last home if he gets the run of the race which could easily happen. 

Mickdaam has not been seen a good 4th over 1m6f in February, that was the first positive form he had shown in an age & he would not need to improve by much to play a hand here. 

Songcraft hacked up of a ridiculously lenient handicap mark last time out, he was a head 2nd in this last year after winning the same handicap & was also placed in 2012 so is sure to be involved once more. 

Sky Hunter looked to be going backwards early last season but showed improved form in the autumn after the snip hacking up in a poor Group 3 on awful ground at Newbury, ground is a slight concern as he is by Motivator & they usually show a preference for cut & he does technically need to improve again.

Umgiyo was impressive on his UAE debut showing a decent turn of foot, he backed that up with a solid run in defeat to the classy Hunter's Light last time on his first attempt at 10f although for me his stamina appeared to fail in the closing stages & it was not a run that suggested 12f is what was required. His sire (Danehill Dancer) gets plenty of winners at 12f+ but the percentage of wins to runs dramatically decreases at the extended distances compared to those of his progeny at less than 10f, while his dam Celtic Queen has produced very little of note & she is a full sister to Alberto Giacometti who barely 10f. 

Ayahausca showed little on her Carnival debut last week & will need a dramatic improvement to get involved. 

Pilote has run well to a point at the Carnival but as I have mentioned before he is so small that there is so little room for any more improvement that he cannot be considered for a win bet let alone at a trip that will stretch him.   

Decent enough race in which Godolphin hold a strong hand with True Story (NAP) holding solid claims of lasting the trip & Songcraft who looks overpriced given his last easy win can follow his stablemate home.  

On to the first of the Night's Group 1's the final round of the Al Maktoum Challenge & my word what a shocking Group 1 it is a mixture of genuine Group animals & handicappers. Last year's runaway World Cup winner African Story gets another chance on dirt after failing to scale the heights in Round 2 but if you look at the run closely it was not as bad as it first looked, he missed the break got in some scrimmaging & ran on well enough at the finish. Given his overall profile he usually needs his first run so if he can break better this time he has a good opportunity of gaining another Group 1.  

Former mid 90's rated handicapper Storm Belt gets a shot at Group 1 glory after a runaway win last time, prior to that he had looked held of his mark, has potential to run into a place & pick up the pieces if any of the better horses fail. 

Ducab is not up to this grade let alone on dirt. 

Prince Bishop appeared to hate the kickback after missing the break in Round 2 before an astonishing drive almost grab the win, hopefully will have learnt to get out quicker as if he does he should go very close to retaining his title. 

Frankyfourfingers has improved markedly for the dirt surface & backed up his excellent 2nd in Round 1 when just lasting home in Round 2, the extra half furlong is a concern here but he has to be respected given his liking for the surface. 

Toolain won a handicap at 40/1 2 starts ago & now finds himself in a Group 1, it honestly doesn't bear thinking about if he could win a Group 1 or even get placed in one.

La Bernardin has been another who has excelled on the dirt this year but the amount of runs appeared to taking its toll as he was only 5th last time out prior to that he was 3rd to Frankyfourfingers, more solid place contender than most. 

Long River is a similar horse to Romansh although his US form overall was slightly behind that of his now stablemate, he did finish an excellent 3rd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Grade 1 at 52/1 last season. 

Henry Clay is running in a Group 1....I might just repeat that Henry Clay in a Group 1, it would be madness if he could get involved but then he did turn over Footbridge last week & loves the surface, stranger things in life have happened but it would be awfully disappointing if he got involved.

Not a race I would even consider having a bet in.

The final race on a less than 'Super' 'Super Saturday' is the Group 1 Jebel Hatta over the 9f on Turf; Hunter's Light has returned a rejuvenated animal with 2 emphatic wins so far this year, he handles this trip but all his best form has been at 10f in his career, deserves to go back into the big time & not discounted given his current mood. 

Anaerobio simply doesnt stay this far & is not good enough. 

Flying The Flag for me was a lucky winner last week in a handicap as Validus should have got going sooner having said that FTF did battle on well but this requires much more & his European Group form is well below what is required here. 

Vercingetorix is the main focus of attention for all MDK runs 6 in the race, he won last year when all attention perhaps unfairly went on the antics of Pat Cosgrave on Anaerobio who was found guilty of team tactics & that saga has rolled on. Vercingetorix was then beaten by Just A Way on the big night & in Hong Kong behind 2 top class local horses. He reappeared in the Al Rashidiya when for the first time he truly impressed me looking as if he'd jumped in at halfway as a he sauntered home in his own time form True Story. He is not overly spectacular in his races as a rule & seems to have only one burst but he is clearly a top class animal who will take all the beating in what is a below par Group 1. 

Darwin has no hope of staying this far as he barely gets the mile while Johann Strauss is not good enough. Completing the De Kock sextet is Sanshaawes who has looked a shadow this season & has plenty to prove here.  

Calling Out is a most interesting runner, he was spoken of in glowing terms on his UAE debut 2 weeks ago & he ran with a modiucm of promise after doing too much too soon, has some useful form in France at minor Group level to his name & certainly has the stature to improve again as a 4yo, not out of this at big odds.

Limario shocked everyone when winning just over 3 weeks ago, he had hardly shown that a win was likely & now he steps back into pattern company it must be doubtful that he can back that up. 

Elleval has been a model of consistency all Carnival including last week but he is always finding at least a couple too good & faces an uphill task here. 

Trade Storm gained his Group 1 win finally on his international travels late last season when getting an inspired ride from Spencer to win the Woodbine Mile, backed that up with a solid 3rd in the Breeders Cup Mile before being well beaten in Hong Kong, has mostly reserved his best form for Dubai but does come on for his first run of the campaign. 

Mr Pommeroy was beaten fair & square behind Hunter's Light & Umgiyo last time out, he has been consistent in 3 runs this campaign & deserves a crack at a Group 1 but will most likely come up short although the likely strong pace will be a plus.

Quite clearly between 2 horses in Vercingetorix & Hunter's Light but you won't get rich backing either of them so I will have a speculative dabble on Calling Out E/W (NB) at rewarding odds.   

@fttfracing