Hello & welcome along to all my readers, Derby Day is here!!
This year's race may well have much maligned in the build up myself included but for me 'The Derby' will always be flat racing's premier event & although in recent years the race has become somewhat of a Coolmore benefit
robbing this great race of much of its spectacle at least this time around the race has a much more open feel to it with so many of the Coolmore blue bloods falling by the wayside leaving plenty of potential rather than proven superstars which makes the race as a whole so much more intriguing.
This year's race may well have much maligned in the build up myself included but for me 'The Derby' will always be flat racing's premier event & although in recent years the race has become somewhat of a Coolmore benefit
robbing this great race of much of its spectacle at least this time around the race has a much more open feel to it with so many of the Coolmore blue bloods falling by the wayside leaving plenty of potential rather than proven superstars which makes the race as a whole so much more intriguing.
Above any other race in the calendar it will always be the true test of a thoroughbred over Epsom's idiosyncratic helter skelter course including the testing Tattenham corner add into that a full packed racecourse of cheering fans & dignitaries plus all the fun of the fair in the centre of the course, no matter what the formbook says once a Derby winners racing career is over on the first Saturday in June it takes an exceptional animal to win this historic race so please one & all can we just celebrate the occasion rather than criticise the race, it is after all after the Grand National the one horse race that your average member of the public has heard of.
is over on the first Saturday in June it takes an exceptional animal to win this historic race so please one & all can we just celebrate the occasion rather than criticise the race, it is after all after the Grand National the one horse race that your average member of the public has heard of.
My own love affair with the Derby began as a 7 year old boy watching a wonderfully charismatic chestnut with one white sock show a terrific burst of speed to run away from his field....that horse of course was the brilliant Nashwan who went on to win an Eclipse & a King George in a truly exceptional 3 year old campaign.
Since then I have been lucky enough to witness the wins of Generous in '91, Dr Devious in '92, the bullet that was Erhaab in '94, the woefully underrated & almost forgotten 'green flash' that was Lammtarra who is the best Derby winner I have ever witnessed in the flesh a tremendous old fashioned horse who looked every inch a champion & on that day in 1995 produced one of the most electrifying finishes to a Derby I have ever seen.
enough to witness the wins of Generous in '91, Dr Devious in '92, the bullet that was Erhaab in '94, the woefully underrated & almost forgotten 'green flash' that was Lammtarra who is the best Derby winner I have ever witnessed in the flesh a tremendous old fashioned horse who looked every inch a champion & on that day in 1995 produced one of the most electrifying finishes to a Derby I have ever seen.
A year later in 1996 the race produced a memorable day for my family as Mtoto's son Shaamit appeared for the first time as a 3 year old to win the great race with a tremendous turn of foot after travelling like a dream around Tattenham corner.
It is one of the those memories that I will take to the grave & are there to be savoured as they do not come around too often.
I took a Derby break for a couple of years but was back in 1999 to see Oath take out the great race under an inspired Kieren Fallon, languishing in 9th that day was a colt by the name of Dubai Millennium. A year later Sinndar was an excellent winner in what later turned out to be one of the best renewals of the new century he himself went onto win
the Arc & the horse he beat that baking hot day at Epsom was Sakhee who won the
following years Arc, in 3rd that day was the classy Beat Hollow who went on to win 4
Group 1's in France & America.
in what later turned out to be one of the best renewals of the new century he himself went onto win the Arc & the horse he beat that baking hot day at Epsom was Sakhee who won the
following years Arc, in 3rd that day was the classy Beat Hollow who went on to win 4
Group 1's in France & America.
A year later the Coolmore domination began & it now stands at 5 winners since Galileo's breakthrough victory in 2001 including the last 3 winners on the trot.
Since Coolmore's best 2 Derby winners (Galileo & High Chaparral) the race has had just 2 exceptional winners who again were both from Ireland in the relentless New Approach & the simply majestic Sea The Stars.
2015's renewal has left many people scratching their heads as we do not yet know the true strength of the classic division which is unusual for this time of year but
Since Coolmore's best 2 Derby winners (Galileo & High Chaparral) the race has had just 2 exceptional winners who again were both from Ireland in the relentless New Approach & the simply majestic Sea The Stars.
2015's renewal has left many people scratching their heads as we do not yet know the true strength of the classic division which is unusual for this time of year but
with so many lightly raced individuals stars could yet appear.
Carbon Dating is a 4 times raced maiden trained in Ireland by Pat Shanahan who has no hope & no real reason to be even in the field.
Elm Park is one of only 2 Group 1 winners in the field courtesy of a soft ground romp in the Racing Post Trophy campaign last year.
He has an ungainly racing style on any ground but even more so on faster than good as he changes his legs far to many times for my liking although this has not prevented him from winning 4 races from 6 starts.
He has an ungainly racing style on any ground but even more so on faster than good as he changes his legs far to many times for my liking although this has not prevented him from winning 4 races from 6 starts.
He may how ever have been raced too many times for a Derby winner as the only horse to have had more starts the Elm Park before winning a Derby was New Approach who was
winning a Derby on his 8th start & you would be hard pressed to say Elm Park is as good a
horse as New Approach in fact on ratings he is nearly 9lbs inferior going into a Derby.
winning a Derby on his 8th start & you would be hard pressed to say Elm Park is as good a
horse as New Approach in fact on ratings he is nearly 9lbs inferior going into a Derby.
His very best form has so far been with plenty of cut & despite having won on good to firm
he struggled in the undulations of the Rowley Mile that day so if the ground does come up fast which is still likely given a drying forecast then he will really struggle to truly let himself down.
he struggled in the undulations of the Rowley Mile that day so if the ground does come up fast which is still likely given a drying forecast then he will really struggle to truly let himself down.
He showed his awkward racing style on his trip to Epsom at 'Breakfast with the Stars' the other day & that was in slower paces than he will be travelling at on Derby day.
He has form to turn around with Golden Horn & Jack Hobbs in the Dante where he was easily brushed aside, quite clearly he was not ready that day but I still would have preferred him to get a tad closer, he attempts to follow Workforce who is so far the only horse to have ever won a Derby after being beaten in a Dante.
Breeding wise he is by no means special from the globetrotting Phoenix Reach his dam
was a 70+ rated handicapper whose only win came in a maiden at the then Great Leighs, she has produced nothing of note prior to Elm Park & the most notable horse in the pedigree is his dam's half sister the useful hurdler Tweedledrum.
was a 70+ rated handicapper whose only win came in a maiden at the then Great Leighs, she has produced nothing of note prior to Elm Park & the most notable horse in the pedigree is his dam's half sister the useful hurdler Tweedledrum.
Epicuris is trained in France by Criquette Head-Maarek & is the other Group 1 winner in the race; like Elm Park his Group 1 was a soft one on bottomless ground in November last year over 10f at Saint Cloud.
He reappeared in the Prix De La Force where he was easily brushed aside by
has let the form down badly with a poor run in last weekend's French Derby & has not been seen since, (on a line through Medrano who was 3rd that day he comes out a similar horse to Storm The Stars & Hans Holbein) he is a most intriguing runner as the better ground should be in his favour.
He is the best progeny of his mile French maiden winning dam who was sold for very little money at the Magic Millions Sale back in 2012. His grandam was also best at a mile but clearly Epicurus gets his stamina from his sire Rail Link whose progeny progress the
further they go.
He is the best progeny of his mile French maiden winning dam who was sold for very little money at the Magic Millions Sale back in 2012. His grandam was also best at a mile but clearly Epicurus gets his stamina from his sire Rail Link whose progeny progress the
further they go.
Giovanni Canaletto is a rather unfurnished lengthy individual who races with an awkward head carriage completely dissimilar to his Derby winning brother Ruler Of The World, he is also a half brother to Champion Duke Of Marmalade.
He improved from a fair maiden run as a 2 year old to win comfortably on his 2nd start & was not seen again. He met with a setback a month or so ago so he was looking unlikely to
make the Derby & after missing all the major trials it looked even less likely but he reappeared in the Gallinule Stakes the other week when a strong favourite only to be beaten quite comfortably by an albeit improving filly in Curvy.
make the Derby & after missing all the major trials it looked even less likely but he reappeared in the Gallinule Stakes the other week when a strong favourite only to be beaten quite comfortably by an albeit improving filly in Curvy.
He was held up for but rarely travelled with any real fluency getting shoved along showing his inexperience, he did however pick up to stay on & appeared to be coming with a winning run but his awkward head carriage prevented him from letting himself down to
full effect he also appeared not want to go by the filly which has to be a huge concern.
Its not Derby winning form in anyway shape or form but his trainer has performed miracles
with average 3 year old colts in the past namely his full brother plus he is entitled to improve on that seasonal debut effort & now that Ryan Moore has been confirmed to ride
his price has collapsed to a ludicrous one, the addition of cheekpieces should benefit the horse like it did his full brother but I doubt that it will be enough to see him involved.
He could easily run into a place but I believe have a much more solid place chance with the under the radar Hans Holbein who looks much more straightforward.
full effect he also appeared not want to go by the filly which has to be a huge concern.
Its not Derby winning form in anyway shape or form but his trainer has performed miracles
with average 3 year old colts in the past namely his full brother plus he is entitled to improve on that seasonal debut effort & now that Ryan Moore has been confirmed to ride
his price has collapsed to a ludicrous one, the addition of cheekpieces should benefit the horse like it did his full brother but I doubt that it will be enough to see him involved.
He could easily run into a place but I believe have a much more solid place chance with the under the radar Hans Holbein who looks much more straightforward.
Originally not entered in the Derby due to the owner breeders stamina fears who had favoured the French Derby over the English he was supplemented recently into the field which on his Dante run & the apparent lack of any real star quality in the race looks a good move especially for one of the stalwart owners in flat racing the Oppenheimer's whose famous Red, White & Black colours have been carried by some cracking horses over the years including Group 1 winners Sasuru, Rebecca Sharp & Balisada both Coronation Stakes heroines plus by Inchinor.
So far the closest the Oppenheimers have got to winning a Derby is with Most Welcome who was 2nd in 1987 & their last Derby runner was Mystic Knight who finished 5th in 1996.
So far the closest the Oppenheimers have got to winning a Derby is with Most Welcome who was 2nd in 1987 & their last Derby runner was Mystic Knight who finished 5th in 1996.
The form appears strong he beat Storm The Stars on his debut who has since won the Cocked Hat Listed & he beat Peacock at Newmarket who has since won a Listed race at the same track. He was also in action at 'Breakfast with the Stars' recently & appeared
to act fine around the course as he is a well balanced colt.
to act fine around the course as he is a well balanced colt.
His breeding is interesting out of an unraced daughter of Dubai Destination (strong source of stamina) who has already produced Golden Horn's half sister Eastern Belle
who just held on to victory as her stamina ebbed away in the Lord Weinstock Memorial Stakes last season at Newbury. His dam is a half sister to the stamina laden Weybridge Light who at his best was rated in the high 60's & was recently seen finishing 2nd from a mark of 49. So to his sire the fabulous Cape Cross already the sire of a Derby & Oaks
winner when paired with stamina laden mares so is this where the true concern lies forGolden Horn's stamina the fact that the cross may not be best suited to 12 furlongs??
who just held on to victory as her stamina ebbed away in the Lord Weinstock Memorial Stakes last season at Newbury. His dam is a half sister to the stamina laden Weybridge Light who at his best was rated in the high 60's & was recently seen finishing 2nd from a mark of 49. So to his sire the fabulous Cape Cross already the sire of a Derby & Oaks
winner when paired with stamina laden mares so is this where the true concern lies forGolden Horn's stamina the fact that the cross may not be best suited to 12 furlongs??
What can we glean from this?
In reality he probably should stay but the fact that his owner was concerned enough never to enter him & his excellent trainer has slight concerns that he may well have too much speed to truly stay blunts the enthusiasm to get behind him.
Of course it has been said most Derby winners after their big day are seen to best effect at 10f but on the day that matters you need to truly get home.
Of course it has been said most Derby winners after their big day are seen to best effect at 10f but on the day that matters you need to truly get home.
Hans Holbein appears to be have been overlooked & underrated by his owners which does him a disservice as he was a ready winner of the Chester Vase showing a grand attitude to make all & quicken on the home turn so we know he is a guaranteed stayer.
That form has worked out well with Storm The Stars going on to win a Listed event at
. He is a half brother to Irish St Leger winner Sans Frontieres so will clearly get better the further he goes, a good honest colt who just gets on with his business in an uncomplicated manner which is no bad thing for a Derby.
Jack Hobbs like his stablemate Golden Horn has raced just the 3 times progressing rapidly in just 5 months from a December Wolverhampton maiden to finishing runner up in the Group 2 Dante Stakes.
He is an imposing type physically who will only get better over the next few years hence why Godolphin have purchased a majority share in him. His maiden win was impressive travelling well on the outside before getting slightly outpaced then staying on to runaway from his field, his reappearance handicap win was simply stunning considering how he pulled before showing a tremendous turn of pace to power 12 lengths clear of his field, made favourite for the Derby after that he stepped up hugely in class in the Dante & to many on the face of it he was slightly disappointing but some perspective is required here this was a massive step up from a 0-95 rated handicap where he himself was only rated 85
to take on a Group 1 winner, a Listed winning stablemate, Listed winning 2 year old plus a Group 2 & Group 3 winning pair of Coolmore blue bloods. He beat all bar his Listed winning stablemate who was suited by the way the race panned out whereas Jack Hobbs
raced closer to the pace & failed to quicken immediately suggesting that in this grade stamina is very much his forte as he stayed on again at the end.
From a breeding perspective his dam Swain's Gold was unraced daughter of dual King George winner Swain, she has already produced recent pattern placed performer Niceofyoutotellme who operates between 9f - 10f in top handicaps.
His grand dam Golden Pond was at her best in & around 6f - 8f rising to a rating of 90 at her best so perhaps there is a question of Jack Hobbs staying with the speed on the female side that would appear to be unfounded for me though with; firstly the way he
races shaping as if the further he goes the better he will become & secondly his sire Halling is a top class producer of horses who stay well over 12f especially when mixed
with mares with a sire index of over 10f+; Norse Dancer (grand sire Roussillon 10.6f), Cavarlyman (Highest Honor 10.4f), The Geezer (Be My Guest 10,1f), Hala Bek (Sadler's Wells 11.4f) & most recently Romsdal (Singspiel 10.4f).
Jack Hobbs showed a real zest for Epsom at 'Breakfast with the Stars' galloping nicely to the line with his head in his chest. For one who has made rapid progress in a short period of time & now that he has the benefit of the run in pattern company he has every chance in what appears a weaker Derby than normal.
Kilimanjaro is a extremely ordinary looking horse who showed little to nothing at 2 years,
he came out to win a poor Dundalk maiden a week later he was out again at Lingfield
where he was never involved struggling around the twists & turns before steadily staying on with purpose as the leaders started going up & down on the spot.
He won going away but appeared to beat very little & you would be hugely concerned if he could get even close to placing let alone winning even an average Derby.
Moheet Is a hugely interesting runner now he has been declared under the hugely underrated Pat Dobbs.
A quality looking strong colt who made an excellent start to his career in a Salisbury maiden by 7 lengths, re-appearing as a 3 year old he was made favourite for the Craven where the slow pace went completely against him but he powered home showing he is at least Group class.
Allowed to take his chance in the Guineas he was caught in a pocket under one of Frankie's lesser rides before finishing with plenty left in hand back in 8th place suggesting that a step up in trip would be well within his reach. He has missed several engagements in the build up & Frankie has deserted him despite his retained owners keeping him in the race. His dam Abunai was a sprinter by trade winning 3 times between 5f - 6f back in 2006 for Roger Charlton she has produced little of note so far although she herself is a
half sister to Sir George Turner who finished 2nd in a Dee Stakes back in 2002 before finishing unplaced when favourite for the Dante the following week, her dam Ingozi won the Atalanta Stakes Listed over 8f in '94.
half sister to Sir George Turner who finished 2nd in a Dee Stakes back in 2002 before finishing unplaced when favourite for the Dante the following week, her dam Ingozi won the Atalanta Stakes Listed over 8f in '94.
On delving into the breeding further we perhaps can see why Frankie has already been allowed to ride Golden Horn as the female side of Moheet's family is Oppenheimer through & through the owners of the current Derby favourite.
How ironic would it be if Frankie's retained owners horse were to run past him down Epsom hill.
How ironic would it be if Frankie's retained owners horse were to run past him down Epsom hill.
Rogue Runner looks to become Germany's 2nd runner in the Derby in the last 2 years from the talented stable of Andreas Wohler who enjoyed Melbourne Cup glory with Protectionist last year. He has raced just the twice so far winning his maiden at Hoppegarten in April before looking slow & one paced stepped up to Group 3 company a week later. He is in as a pacemaker for Elm Park
Storm The Stars already ties in through plenty of formlines (Golden Horn, Hans Holbein & Best Of Times). He has progressed rapidly in the last 2 months winning a Leicester maiden before looking slightly unlucky at Chester behind Hans Holbein, he then went to Goodwood to make all in the Cocked Hat (Predominate to anyone traditional like myself) pulling away nicely at the finish, stamina is assured & his astute trainer knows what it takes to win a Derby having scored with Shaamit in 1996.
His dam is an unraced Ballydoyle cast off she is a half sister to dual Group winner You'resothrilling who is of course the dam of Marvellous (Irish 1000 Guineas Group 1) & this year's dual 2000 Guineas hero Gleneagles.
Success Days has been supplemented into the race after 2 wins in Ireland's premier Derby trials the Ballysax & Derrinstown, both races however were extremely poor contests run on bottomless ground which he clearly handles extremely well. He won by 10 lengths last time easily moving into the lead & extending all the way to the line, a bonny type who has earned a crack at the Derby who has already outstayed his pedigree as his dam was a poor 6f handicapper in France & his pedigree is mostly stacked with sprinters & milers apart from exception the classy Tot Ou Tard who was a 3 time 12f winner at Listed, Group 3 & Group 2 level but one thing that is constant throughout the pedigree is a preference for soft ground.
There has been plenty of rain about this week but it will still be the fastest ground he has encountered yet, stamina is a worry for the extra 2 furlongs but he hasn't been stopping so he may well keep outstaying his pedigree, well worth a crack at the big pot & sure to give it his best shot.
Maybe not a vintage renewal on paper but it is certainly full of intrigue & for me the winner is Jack Hobbs 9/2;
1st: Jack Hobbs
2nd: Golden Horn
3rd: Hans Holbein
@fttfracing
i enjoy to see your work..keep it up...and also visit to my site...for Many working Tips...Quicken Premier 2016 Crack
ReplyDelete